Tag: Climate change

Counting on … day 84

11th April 2024

Fossil Fuel Subsidies -1

This overview of fossil fuel subsidies comes from the IMF: “Subsidies are intended to protect consumers by keeping prices low, but they come at a substantial cost. Subsidies have sizeable fiscal consequences (leading to higher taxes/borrowing or lower spending), promote inefficient allocation of an economy’s resources (hindering growth), encourage pollution (contributing to climate change and premature deaths from local air pollution), and are not well targeted at the poor (mostly benefiting higher income households). Removing subsidies and using the revenue gain for better targeted social spending, reductions in inefficient taxes, and productive investments can promote sustainable and equitable outcomes.” (1)

The article goes on to explain the difference between explicit and implicit subsidies, the former being the obvious direct payments to fossil fuel producers to bring down the unit cost of the fuel. The latter is a subsidy that is likely always present, vis in the practice of not charging the fossil fuel producers for the costs of pollution, climate change etc that are a consequence of their business. 

“Implicit subsidies occur when the retail price fails to include external costs, inclusive of the standard consumption tax. External costs include contributions to climate change through greenhouse gas emissions, local health damages (primarily pre-mature deaths) through the release of harmful local pollutants like fine particulates, and traffic congestion and accident externalities associated with the use of road fuels”(1)

By way of example they provide the following bar chart: 

(1) https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/climate-change/energy-subsidies

Counting on … day 80

5th April 2024

Green Steel 

Steel manufacturing produces more CO2 than any other heavy industry, comprising around 8% of total global emissions. 

Traditionally steel is made in a blast furnace where the iron ore is he@ted at high temperatures together with coal. As the coal burns it produces carbon monoxide which bonds with and removes oxygen in the iron ore so purifying it to produce metallic iron. The carbon monoxide binding with oxygen becomes carbon dioxide and is one of the main sources of carbon emissions. Other sources of emissions will vary depending how the furnace is heated etc. 

The industry is developing various ways of producing steel without – or with reduced – carbon dioxide emissions – known as green steel.

Replacing coal with hydrogen: Green steel can be produced by using hydrogen to remove the oxygen from the the ore – producing water (H2O). Ideally this would be green hydrogen – ie hydrogen produced using renewable energy. This method of producing steel requires heating the furnace to a higher temperature.

Reusing existing steel: steel can easily be recycled in arc furnaces powered by electricity – which ideally would be electricity from renewable energy sources with no carbon dioxide emissions.

Around 30% of the world’s steel is made from recycled steel. However steel cannot be recycled endlessly without loss of quality. Each time it is recycled the proportion of unwanted elements such as copper, nickel and tin increases. On the other hand steel has  long in-use life which means that the amount of steel made available for recycling does not at present keep up with the growing demand for more steel. Our modern economies are big users of steel!

(For more detail see https://theconversation.com/green-steel-is-hailed-as-the-next-big-thing-in-australian-industry-heres-what-the-hype-is-all-about-160282)

Which ever form of green steel is produced, the availability of large amounts of renewable energy is going to be critical. 

As important will be the way the transition is managed as furnaces are large and highly expensive pieces of kit – ie needing substantial investment – and can take years to install which in some instances has led to workers being laid off – as is proposed at the Tata steel works in Port Talbot. (https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/mar/25/tata-port-talbot-job-losses-labour-subsidy?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other). 

Other important issues to address are how steel is used – with product design ensuring a long life, whether other materials could be used – timber for example in building construction, and how effectively scrap  steel is collected and recycled.

Further reading – https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64538296

Counting on … day 79

4th April 2024

Bioenergy can also be obtained from trees – the timber is burnt to  either as direct form of heat from a stove of fire, or in a power station to  drive steam turbines that generate electricity.  Burning timber is the most common form of bioenergy used in the UK. Whilst it can be claimed that only waste timber is used – cuts and shavings from timber plants – the reality is that power stations such as Drax import timber which already starts to add to its carbon footprint. International rules imported timber is zero carbon as the emissions are counted in the country where the trees are harvested. In fact these emissions are often not recorded at all. And whilst the timber arrives here as preformed pellets, the timber intact comes from whole trees  from mono culture plantations or from virgin forests.

In reality burning timber as a bioenergy is not a zero carbon option. The carbon stored in the timber is going to be released at some point in the future but if that tree is left to grow, and in its own good time, die, that carbon is locked in longer. Even better as the tree decays in its natural environment it will take years to decay during which time it will provide a habitat for a great variety of different plants and creatures.  Further a large part of the carbon will be absorbed into the soil, again storing it away. If on the other hand the tree, having been felled, is used to make doors, floor boards, paper, furniture etc so the carbon is locked away for many more years to come. 

For further reading – https://www.rspb.org.uk/helping-nature/what-we-do/influence-government-and-business/nature-protection-and-restoration/bioenergy

Is burning wood for energy worse for the climate than coal?
Biomass Basics

Carbon capture and storage CCS for the ongoing burning of fossil fuels to generate energy – https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/mar/26/tone-deaf-fossil-gas-growth-in-europe-is-speeding-climate-crisis-say-activists?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Counting on … day 76

28th March 2024

Biodiversity is “the variety and variability of life on Earth. Biodiversity is a measure of variation at the genetic, species and ecosystem levels. Biodiversity is not distributed evenly on Earth; it is usually greater in the tropics as a result of the warm climate and high primary productivity in the region near the equator. Tropical forest ecosystems cover less than 10% of Earth’s terrestrial surface and contain about 50% of the world’s species.” (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biodiversity)

Biodiversity is linked to climate change. When the climate is changing, ecosystems change and with them species must also adapt and change. If the climate change is rapid, some species may not be able to change at a sufficient pace and their numbers will decline rapidly. Conversely biodiversity is often boosted by practices designed to reduce climate change – eg planting more natural woodland, restoring natural habitats such as peat bogs and wet lands, etc benefits and therefore boosts biodiversity. 

Counting on … day 72

22nd March 2024

Carbon sequestration is a formal name given to the processes by which carbon is captured from the atmosphere and stored on a long-term basis. Such long-term storage might include peat bogs, forests, kelp beds etc and may be referred to as ‘carbon sinks’.

Carbon sequestration can be used as a means of  mitigating the effects of climate change. This can be biologically by, for example, planting more forests, restoring peat bogs and wetlands, and re-establishing kelp meadows. This natural sequestration can be enhanced, in the case of forests, by using felled timber to make items such as buildings, furniture etc and keeping those items for hundreds of years. However growing trees for timber needs to be carefully managed to a) maximise the carbon captured by the growing tree, and b) to maximise the flourishing of biodiversity.

Carbon can also be sequestered geologically if the CO2 can be captured  eg from a cement factory. Then the CO2 “can be compressed to ≈100 bar into a supercritical fluid. In this form, the CO2 could be transported via pipeline … and  injected deep underground, typically around 1 km, where it would be stable for hundreds to millions of years.” (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_sequestration)

Counting on … day 71

21st March 2024

The carbon cycle 

The earth’s systems have various ways of absorbing and using carbon dioxide in such a way as to enable life to flourish. Plants absorb carbon dioxide as part of the process of photosynthesis storing the carbon as cellular material  in their leaves, branches etc. Plants release carbon dioxide back into the atmosphere as they respire – breathe. A living growing plant absorbs more carbon dioxide than it releases. When the plant dies, the carbon that has been stored as leaves and branches etc slowly decays – breaks down – and the carbon returns to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide. This is as true of water and marine plants as it is true of land plants. 

 (For a short video describing how trees absorb and use  carbon – https://www.woodlandtrust.org.uk/climate-change/carbon-trees/)

Soil in part is made up of dead plant and animal material which decays slowly overtime. Soil is therefore a storer of carbon.

The seas and oceans also contain carbon dioxide that is dissolved in the water. This carbon dioxide cycles through the water as marine plants take in, store and release the carbon as they grow. Marine waters  and the layers of sediment at the bottom of the seas and oceans store carbon in the same way as does soil. 

This brings us back to an earlier post about how much carbon dioxide there is in the atmosphere (measured in part per million) and the rate at which that concentration is increasing due to human activities – https://greentau.org/2024/02/19/counting-on-day/

Counting on … day 70

20th March 2024

The geological history of oil and gas. 

“The formation of oil takes a significant amount of time with oil beginning to form millions of years ago. 70% of oil deposits existing today were formed in the Mesozoic age (252 to 66 million years ago), 20% were formed in the Cenozoic age (65 million years ago), and only 10% were formed in the Paleozoic age (541 to 252 million years ago). This is likely because the Mesozoic age was marked by a tropical climate, with large amounts of plankton in the ocean.

“The formation of oil begins in warm, shallow oceans that were present on the Earth millions of years ago. In these oceans, extremely small dead organic matter – classified as plankton – falls to the floor of the ocean. This plankton consists of animals, called zooplankton, or plants, called phytoplankton. This material then lands on the ocean floor and mixes with inorganic material that enters the ocean by rivers. It is this sediment on the ocean floor that then forms oil over many years”.

  1. The dead plankton, plus algae and bacteria form an organic rich mud.
  2. If the mud remains in an anoxic environment  – lacking in oxygen such as stagnant water – it does not decompose and so retains its carbon content. 
  3. This anoxic environment becomes embedded by subsequent layers of mud, compressing the carbon rich  layer into an organic shale. 
  4. Overtime the shale sinks as more layers are added. At a depth of 2 to 4km the temperatures from the earth’s core plus the increased pressure converts the organic shale to oil shale.
  5. If the temperatures at this depth are between 90 and 160C this oil shale is transformed into oil and natural gas. This will either seep upwards being lighter than water, or maybe sealed in by subsequent layers of impervious rock.

(https://energyeducation.ca/encyclopedia/Oil_formation)

Again it is mind blowing to reflect that these oil and gas deposits that took millions of years in the making, are now being burnt at an annual rate of 6.6 billion tonnes, such that we have 47 years of reserves remaining – should we be foolish enough to want to burn them.(https://www.worldometers.info/oil/) 

We should keep in mind that the IEA warns that a cannot risk developing and burning new oil and gas reserves without exceeding the 1.5C global warming limit.

Counting on … day 67

15th March 2024

The UK government runs a National Adaptation Programme which assesses the risks arising from climate change and how best we can adapt to reduce of cope with these risks – as well as building on any opportunities where we can gain from change. These plans are reviewed and every five years a new National Adaptation Programme is produced. NAP3 covers the period from 2023 to 2028. It includes items such as:

  • “protecting the natural environment
  • supporting business in adapting to climate change
  • adapting infrastructure (for example, our electricity networks and railways)
  • protecting buildings and their surroundings (for example, from hotter temperatures)
  • protecting public health and communities
  • mitigating international impacts on the UK (for example, on food supplies imported from abroad)”

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/third-national-adaptation-programme-nap3/understanding-climate-adaptation-and-the-third-national-adaptation-programme-nap3

But are the plans sufficiently stringent? 

“Julia King, chair of the adaptation subcommittee of the CCC, said: “The evidence of the damage from climate change has never been clearer, but the UK’s current approach to adaptation is not working. The national adaptation plan published last July, known as Nap3, was the third in a series of five-yearly updates in response to an assessment of climate risks, required under the 2008 Climate Change Act, from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.

“But the CCC found that although it was an improvement on previous efforts, the new plan was still inadequate and required improvement before the next scheduled update in 2028.

“King said: “Defra needs to deliver an immediate strengthening of the government’s programme, with an overhaul of its integration with other government priorities such as net zero and nature restoration. We cannot wait another five years for only incremental improvement.”” https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/mar/13/uk-climate-crisis-plans-fall-far-short-of-what-is-required-ccc-says?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

For further reading – https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-66148239

Counting on … day 64

12th March 2024

A Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) is a climate action plan that shows how a nation will cut its emissions and adapt to climate change. (Being nationally determined allows for differentiation between nations according to the current ability to effect change. Wealthier countries should be able to reduce emissions at a faster rate). 

Each Party – ie nation or state – to the Paris Agreement is required to establish an NDC.  Collectively these NDCs should ensure the world’s greenhouse gas emissions peak and then fall, and so address the climate crisis. Each NDC covers a five year period – being submitted to the UNFCC in 2020, 2025, 2030 etc – but is subject to ongoing review by each nation.

Since 2021 the UNFCC has produced a synthesis report that collects, collates and analyses all the NDCs, to determine whether or not nations are on track to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement. The most recent, published in November 2023 in the run up to COP28, found that the  national climate action plans were still insufficient to limit the global temperature rise to just 1.5C. The hope was that this announcement would spur on the parties at COP28 to take radical action to address this shortcoming.

However it did not.

Counting on … day 63

11th March 2024

“The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an intergovernmental body of the United Nations. Its job is to advance scientific knowledge about climate change caused by human activities… It has 195 member states who govern the IPCC. The member states elect a bureau of scientists to serve through an assessment cycle. A cycle is usually six to seven years… The IPCC informs governments about the state of knowledge of climate change. It does this by examining all the relevant scientific literature on the subject. This includes the natural, economic and social impacts and risks… Thousands of scientists and other experts volunteer to review the publications. They compile key findings into “Assessment Reports” for policymakers and the general public; Experts have described this work as the biggest peer review process in the scientific community. The IPCC is an internationally accepted authority on climate change. Leading climate scientists and all member governments endorse its findings.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change

The reports produced by the IPCC have been key in enabling The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This is the structure that enables the UN to negotiate an agreement whereby the nations of the world undertake to address the climate crisis.  Formally it is termed an international treaty among countries to combat “dangerous human interference with the climate system” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Framework_Convention_on_Climate_Change

The most significant UNFCCC treaty was The Paris Agreement which was hammered out at COP21 in 2015 and came into force in 2016. Its aims were to limit the rise in global temperature to less than 2ºC above pre-industrial revolution levels, while aiming to hold it at 1.5ºC.