COP30 – The Green Tau

Counting on … 187

14th November 2025

Not only have humans been adding excessive amounts of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere (largely though burning fossil fuels), we have also been destroying the Earth’s own ways of absorbing carbon dioxide. Two of the main ‘carbon sinks’ (as they are known) are forests, especially rain forests, and oceans.

Loss of rainforest in the Amazon continues to increase due to deforestation (principally clearing tree to grow other crops) and wild fires (which are increasing as temperatures rise and as droughts become more severe). (1)

It is sad to report that in the leaders’ summit in advance of COP30, the UK government determined not to help fund the Tropical Forests Forever Fund (TFFF). The TFFF aim is to raise $25 billion from developed countries attending COP30, which will underpin a $125 billion fund (p rest coming from private investors) to protect rainforests on both the Amazon and Congo. (3)

Oceans loose their ability to absorb carbon dioxide as they heat (warm water absorbs less CO2) (2)

and as flora and fauna are removed (from whales to sea grass) and from bottom trawling and mining which release previously absorbed CO2. (4)

To an extended protection of the oceans already exists via the 30 by 30 Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) where signatories agreed to protect and enhance the biodiversity of 30% of land and sea by 2030. (5) This will hopefully be further extended to include international waters that lie outside those waters controlled by individual nations with the High Seas Treaty. (6)

(1) https://news.mongabay.com/short-article/2025/06/climate-strikes-the-amazon-undermining-protection-efforts/

(2) https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2025/09/04/the-ocean-carbon-sink-is-ailing/

(3) https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/nov/05/uk-opts-out-of-flagship-fund-to-protect-amazon-and-other-threatened-tropical-forests

(4) https://www.southampton.ac.uk/publicpolicy/CFloor.page

(5) https://for-the-ocean.org/event/cop30/

(6) https://highseasalliance.org/treaty-negotiations/

Counting on … 185

12th November 2025

Cutting methane emissions is clearly a quick and important way of reducing the short term damaging effect of greenhouse gas emissions, but unless emissions from fossil fuels are also tackled, the climate crisis will only increase. National governments and fossil fuel companies need to legislate and implement (respectively) plans to end fossil fuel production. Yet unbelievably across the world countries are still planning to further expand fossil fuel production!

“The increases in fossil fuel production estimated under the government plans and projections pathways would lead to global production levels in 2030 that are 500%, 31%, and 92% higher for coal, oil, and gas, respectively, than the median 1.5ºC-consistent pathway.” (1)

The International Energy Agency itself reported in 2021 that there was no need for new developments: sufficient oil and gas production is already in place to meet global needs as the world transitions to renewable energy. (2)

Clearly this is an issue that needs to be addressed during COP30.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/sep/22/fossil-fuels-coal-gas-oil-extraction-climate-goals-beyond-reach?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Counting on … 184

11th November 2025

CO2 is the main GHG but methane is another, particularly potent, GHG. Methane doesn’t last as long in the atmosphere (ten to twelve years compared with hundreds or even thousands of years for carbon dioxide) but its warming effect is greater than that of carbon dioxide – as much as 80% more. (1)

40% of methane emissions are natural; 60% are manmade. Methane levels are now two-and-a-half times greater than pre-industrial levels.

Methane levels are still rising but clearly if emissions were curtailed it would help address the short term impact of climate change and rising temperatures. Frustratingly the IEA reports that “around 40% of today’s methane emissions from fossil fuels could be avoided at no net cost” (2) Methane emissions from fossil fuels can be reduced by reducing flaring and venting and by curtailing leaks! NB Natural gas is 80-95% methane.

To date methane emissions reduction has been via voluntary pledges, which are not tackling the problem. This is something that needs to be addressed during COP30. “ Durwood Zaelke, the president of the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development, said countries must sign a new global agreement on methane rather than sticking with the non-binding pledge. “With emissions still high, the voluntary pledge is clearly not enough to keep us from passing the fast-approaching tipping points,” he said. “We need a more muscular binding methane agreement.” (3)

https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/carbon-management-and-fossil-fuels/methane-emissions_en

(2) https://www.iea.org/reports/global-methane-tracker-2024/key-findings

(3) https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/nov/10/rich-countries-have-lost-enthusiasm-for-tackling-climate-crisis-says-cop30-chief?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Counting on … 183

10th November 2025

COP30 starts this week in Belém, Brazil. Global greenhouse gas emissions are continuing to rise as are global temperatures. The real hope is the all the parties will agree to transition rapidly away from fossil fuels – fossil fuels are the single biggest cause of greenhouse gas emissions. Unless they are eliminated, there is no way we can curb, let alone rein in, rising global temperatures and all that that will do to destroy the ecosystems in which we rely.

The main greenhouse gas, and one most easily measured, is carbon dioxide. Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere keeps in heat. Without some CO2 in the atmosphere our planet would be very cold.

CO2 levels in the atmosphere (measured in parts per million) have varied throughout geological time. This graph (1) shows atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere over the last 800,000 years (red line). CO2 levels were lower during the ice ages, and higher during the warmer interglacial periods. During this entire era, CI2 levels never exceeded 300 PPM until the modern era. The graphic also shows the differences global temperatures above and below the mean – the temperature anomaly.

There is a clear correlation between CO2 levels and temperature fluctuations. But more significantly the graph shows how rapidly both CO2 levels and temperatures are rising. It is a rate of change that is not due to natural deviations but to the impact of human activity.

(1) – https://theconversation.com/the-three-minute-story-of-800-000-years-of-climate-change-with-a-sting-in-the-tail-73368