Judith Russenberger

Counting on … 194

25th November 2025

Returning to a focus on planetary boundaries (see https://greentau.org/2025/10/22/counting-on-170/) one boundary that may not automatically spring to mind is that of ‘novel entities’. A novel entity is a substance created by humans from synthetic chemicals and/or natural chemicals that processed in wholly new ways to produce a new – ‘novel’ – entity. Or it is something created by us by modifying the genetics of living organisms or the like, again producing a completely new entity. (1)

Examples of novel entities includes:

numerous synthetic fertilisers, insecticides and pesticides – whilst these may increase harvests they also pollute soil and water and kill off pollinators and other essential insects. DTD is one such infamous example.
chloroflurocarbons – these were used in fridges and aerosols before being restricted, because they were damaging the ozone layer.
PFAs which are petrol based chemicals that offer amazing properties in resisting heat, oil, water, grease et such that they have been widely used in creating non-stick cooking ware, waterproof clothing, stain resistant and fire retardant fabrics etc. However they also cause infertility and various cancers, and have such a long life (remaining active pollutants) such that they are termed ‘forever chemicals’.
BPA (Bisphenol A) is widely used in hard plastics cups, baby bottles, toys, food boxes, etc and can linings. It too can damage fertility, disrupt hormones, and cause eye damage, skin reaction and respiratory irritation.
Artificial food additives are used to enhance flavour, smell, texture or shelf-life of foods, with the word artificial indicating that these are synthetic rather than natural ingredients. Whilst they are regulated for safety, there is still evidence that they can harm health. For example, the consumption of artificial sweeteners is linked to both cancer and cardiovascular diseases, and nitrates and nitrites (found in products such as bacon) may also have links to these diseases.
Genetically modified organisms includes such things as golden rice (a GM rice that produces Beta-carotene); Bt Crop Maize which is toxic to certain pests; and AquAdvangage salmon that grow at twice the rate of conventional salmon. Again there are concerns around links between GM food and cancer, allergic reactions etc but before they enter the food chain there are safety assessments to be passed. Another concern is that GMO will disrupt the DNA of their natural counterparts. And with F1 hybrid plants we already know that their seeds have a lower germination success rate.
Plastics generally – much has been written about the problems with plastics, that they hang around in the environment for centuries, and that when they break down into micro and nano-particles they enter into every part of our bodies and into every part of the global environment. As yet we don’t know whether the impact on humans is neutral or harmful. We do know that plastic does maim and kill wildlife and damage ecosystems.

Novel entities are widespread in the world – The Chemical Abstracts Service maintains a database of chemical names which has identified 204 million new chemicals! (2) – yet what we don’t know is the extent to which they are damaging the world’s environment. It is therefore instructive to read this from a report by the American Chemical Society:-

“We submit that the safe operating space of the planetary boundary of novel entities is exceeded since annual production and releases are increasing at a pace that outstrips the global capacity for assessment and monitoring.” (3)

Counting on … 193

24th November 2025

As an addendum to last weeks blogs about rainforest deforestation, a timely update about COP30 from Greenpeace.

Legislation exists in Europe and the UK which aims to reduce deforestation. The EU passed the Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) in June 2023, which requires companies to check and be able to confirm that their products (whether using raw materials such as beef, cocoa, palm oil, rubber etc or derivatives) do not contribute to deforestation. There has been resistance and its implementation has been delayed till December 2025 (and till June 2026 for small companies). UK companies that trade with the EU will perforce have to work within these same regulations. (1)

The UK has enacted the Environment Act 2021, which aims, amongst other things, to tackle deforestation in UK supply chains as set out in Schedule 17. However this is a much narrower piece of legislation in terms of both the protection it offers and in terms of the companies that will be required to take action. (1)

One area of concern is the welfare of small farmers in the poorer parts of the world where their farming practice still rely on deforestation. Small farmers may have insufficient capital resources to adopt climate and nature friendly practice and therefore may simply go out of business and have to resort to subsistence farming – or will resort to deception and continue to cut down trees. (2) Ideally funding to facilitate a fair transition should be forthcoming from our wealthier nations and business organisations.

Feast of Christ the King

23rd November 2025

Reflection with readings below

Each time we pray the Lord’s Prayer, we ask that God’s kingdom come on Earth as in Heaven. This is to ask that God should reign on Earth, that God’s rule should prevail here on Earth. This would be a transformation of the systems of power and authority that we see. God’s rule has the best interests of the poor and vulnerable at heart. God’s rule encourages cooperation and the sharing of resources. It engenders love and friendship between everyone. It engenders peace and harmony. Today we celebrate the Feast of Christ the King for as the last Sunday of the Church’s year it is when we reflect on the culmination of Jesus’s ministry – the establishing of God’s rule here on Earth.

For the people Jeremiah was writing for, were in a no win situation – either to be overrun by the Babylonian Empire or to be taken over by the Egyptian Empire. Jeremiah places the fault with the nation’s leaders. They are more concerned for their own well being and safety, and have failed in their work of caring for, protecting and keeping the people together in community. Jesus himself will preach the same message when he castigates those in authority for having as little concern for their people as a hired hand hand has for the sheep – and will assert his own role as the Good Shepherd.

Are our leaders today following the example of the good or of the bad shepherds? Do our government ministers have our best interests at heart or are they more focus on popularity in the polls? Do they care for migrants, for those seeking a safe place to live? Do they care for those already committed to working here, who as yet have no citizenship rights? Do they care whether or not the most vulnerable, and the poorest, actually have enough to live good healthy lives? Do they care enough to ensure that our children have the best start in life, or that our elderly can live free of worry in their old age? Or do they care more for those with large incomes, those who can successfully lobby for their attention, or who can manipulate the markets?

And what of the national governments involved with COP30? Are they willing to care for not just the people in their own countries but for the wellbeing of people across the world? The climate crisis doesn’t recognise national boundaries so unless they work together we will instead all suffer.

And what too of those in positions of power that are not democratically elected? The CEOs of commercial organisations, the fund managers controlling vast portions of economic wealth, or the lobbyists and influencers who increasingly determine the direction of travel governments. Yet again, the number of lobbyists representing the interests of the fossil fuel industries at COP30 has risen: 1in 25 attendees is such a lobbyist. Their numbers exceed the delegates from the Philippines, and equally those from Jamaica – both being nations recovering from extreme weather events driven by climate change.

The world is full of ‘bad shepherds’.

As Christians we need to follow Jeremiah’s example and call out the abuse and misuse of power wherever we find it – and by the same token that means we should have ears and eyes open to what is happening in the world and be ready to ask the awkward questions so that such wrong doing does not happen unreported. As Christians we need to challenge the systems that allow people to exercise and misuse power in this way. And as Christians, we should be standing up for the needs as well as for the rights of the vulnerable and isolated.

Yes these tasks can seem impossible, but with God as our strength and Jesus as our guide, we can and should do the best we can. It may mean doggedly reading the news and other reports even when this feels overwhelming. It may mean tediously writing letters and signing petitions. It may mean going out in the cold and wet to join vigils and protest marches (but these also come with wonderful times of camaraderie, with well earned breaks for coffee and cake, and with amazing encounters with amazing people). It may mean boycotting favourite foods or products – we do have significant power as consumers when we work together. It may mean changing our lifestyles to show solidarity with others and to be living examples of what the Kingdom of Heaven may look like.

As we prepare for the start of the new Church year, can we embrace Advent as a time to reflect on and renew our commitment to the coming of the Kingdom of God?

Jeremiah 23:1-6

Woe to the shepherds who destroy and scatter the sheep of my pasture! says the Lord. Therefore thus says the Lord, the God of Israel, concerning the shepherds who shepherd my people: It is you who have scattered my flock, and have driven them away, and you have not attended to them. So I will attend to you for your evil doings, says the Lord. Then I myself will gather the remnant of my flock out of all the lands where I have driven them, and I will bring them back to their fold, and they shall be fruitful and multiply. I will raise up shepherds over them who will shepherd them, and they shall not fear any longer, or be dismayed, nor shall any be missing, says the Lord.

The days are surely coming, says the Lord, when I will raise up for David a righteous Branch, and he shall reign as king and deal wisely, and shall execute justice and righteousness in the land. In his days Judah will be saved and Israel will live in safety. And this is the name by which he will be called: “The Lord is our righteousness.”

The Song of Zechariah Luke 1: 68-79

Blessed be the Lord, the God of Israel; *
he has come to his people and set them free.

He has raised up for us a mighty saviour, *
born of the house of his servant David.

Through his holy prophets he promised of old,

that he would save us from our enemies, *
from the hands of all who hate us.

He promised to show mercy to our fathers *
and to remember his holy covenant.

This was the oath he swore to our father Abraham, *
to set us free from the hands of our enemies,

Free to worship him without fear, *
holy and righteous in his sight
all the days of our life.

You, my child, shall be called the prophet of the Most High, *
for you will go before the Lord to prepare his way,

To give his people knowledge of salvation *
by the forgiveness of their sins.

In the tender compassion of our God *
the dawn from on high shall break upon us,

To shine on those who dwell in darkness and the shadow of death, *
and to guide our feet into the way of peace.

Glory to the Father, and to the Son, and to the Holy Spirit: *
as it was in the beginning, is now, and will be for ever. Amen.

Colossians 1:11-20

May you be made strong with all the strength that comes from his glorious power, and may you be prepared to endure everything with patience, while joyfully giving thanks to the Father, who has enabled you to share in the inheritance of the saints in the light. He has rescued us from the power of darkness and transferred us into the kingdom of his beloved Son, in whom we have redemption, the forgiveness of sins.

He is the image of the invisible God, the firstborn of all creation; for in him all things in heaven and on earth were created, things visible and invisible, whether thrones or dominions or rulers or powers– all things have been created through him and for him. He himself is before all things, and in him all things hold together. He is the head of the body, the church; he is the beginning, the firstborn from the dead, so that he might come to have first place in everything. For in him all the fullness of God was pleased to dwell, and through him God was pleased to reconcile to himself all things, whether on earth or in heaven, by making peace through the blood of his cross.

Luke 23:33-43

When they came to the place that is called The Skull, they crucified Jesus there with the criminals, one on his right and one on his left. Then Jesus said, “Father, forgive them; for they do not know what they are doing.” And they cast lots to divide his clothing. The people stood by, watching Jesus on the cross; but the leaders scoffed at him, saying, “He saved others; let him save himself if he is the Messiah of God, his chosen one!” The soldiers also mocked him, coming up and offering him sour wine, and saying, “If you are the King of the Jews, save yourself!” There was also an inscription over him, “This is the King of the Jews.”

One of the criminals who were hanged there kept deriding him and saying, “Are you not the Messiah? Save yourself and us!” But the other rebuked him, saying, “Do you not fear God, since you are under the same sentence of condemnation? And we indeed have been condemned justly, for we are getting what we deserve for our deeds, but this man has done nothing wrong.” Then he said, “Jesus, remember me when you come into your kingdom.” He replied, “Truly I tell you, today you will be with me in Paradise.”

Grief and sorrow over our failure to care for creation

22nd November 2025

My eyes grow dim with weeping. Each day I beg your help; O Lord, I reach my pleading hands to you for mercy. Soon it will be too late! Psalm 89:9, 10a

You Lord, are the source of all good things:

We praise you.

You call us to tend and care for your creation:

May we strive to do your will.

You have made us as brothers and sisters with all that lives:

May we live together in peace.

A reading from Luke 18: 9-14 (The Message) Jesus told his next story to some who were complacently pleased with themselves over their moral performance and looked down their noses at the common people: “Two men went up to the Temple to pray, one a Pharisee, the other a tax man. The Pharisee posed and prayed like this: ‘Oh, God, I thank you that I am not like other people—robbers, crooks, adulterers, or, heaven forbid, like this tax man. I fast twice a week and tithe on all my income.’ “Meanwhile the tax man, slumped in the shadows, his face in his hands, not daring to look up, said, ‘God, give mercy. Forgive me, a sinner.’” Jesus commented, “This tax man, not the other, went home made right with God. If you walk around with your nose in the air, you’re going to end up flat on your face, but if you’re content to be simply yourself, you will become more than yourself.”

Response

Suffering God,

Full of grief, I pour out my sorrows;

Full of mourning, I bewail our loss:

Bluebells that cannot keep pace with climate change,

Ash, elm and chestnut trees felled by disease,

Frogspawn that succumbs to unseasonal cold,

Butterflies caught out by unseasonal rain.

Suffering God,

Full of grief, I pour out my sorrows;

Full of mourning, I bewail our loss:

Wetlands that are no longer wet,

Curlews that have nowhere to feed,

Streams overwhelmed by fertilisers,

Rivers polluted by sewage.

Suffering God,

Full of grief, I pour out my sorrows;

Full of mourning, I bewail our loss:

Glaciers receding up mountains,

Alpine plants pushed over the edge,

Mountain hares with nowhere to go,

Moorlands and tundra burnt to a cinder.

Suffering God,

Full of grief, I pour out my sorrows;

Full of mourning, I bewail our loss:

Oceans with no whales,

Savannahs with no elephants

Coral reefs with no coral,

Icecaps with no ice.

Merciful God,

Forgive us our greed and our complacency,

Our folly and selfishness.

Forgive us when we have failed to see our errors,

and have chosen to overlook our faults.

Forgive us when we have not listened to the facts,

preferring to believe our own stories.

Forgive us when we have ignored the plight of others,

caring only for number one.

Restore in us a right mind and a right spirit.

Strengthen our hands and our hearts to care for your world.

Embolden our will to love our neighbours as ourselves.

Free up our grasp on wealth and resources

that all may benefit from your bounty.

Release us from our pride and self assurance

that we can truly worship you,

our creator, redeemer and sustainer.

Amen.

The Grace

Green Tau: issue 120

21st November 2025

Why poor diets are a systems issue not just a food issue.

Part 1

Recently The Eat-Lancet Commission updated its Planetary Health Diet. This is a scientifically developed diet that can be followed anywhere in the globe using local, traditional ingredients. As the name ambiguously suggests, it is a diet that both promotes our physical health and planetary health. It is a diet rich in plant based foods with small amounts of fish, meat and dairy items.

The 2025 overview begins with the arresting sentence: “The food we eat is more than a personal choice.” Can what we choose to eat make that much of a difference to the lives of other people?

The report continues: “It is a public issue with global consequences. What we eat affects agricultural land use, greenhouse gas emissions, water availability and quality, labor systems, and public health. Today’s food systems are, in many ways, failing. Millions face hunger, while others suffer from completely preventable chronic diseases. Food production contributes to environmental degradation and deepens inequality, when it could be the primary source of environmental regeneration, and justice. The EAT-LancetCommission’s approach to food addresses these challenges by linking health, sustainability, and justice. It promotes a shift in both consumption and production patterns, making healthy and sustainable food more accessible and reducing pressure on planetary boundaries. Transforming food will require cooperation across sectors, cultures, and regions. But the science is clear: changing what we eat is essential to building a future in which both people and planet can thrive.” (1)

What we choose to eat can shape how much land has to be used to produce our food and if that is less than at present, then more land can be used to restore biodiversity and the natural resilience of the world’s ecosystems.

What we choose to eat can reduce greenhouse emissions and so contribute to ensure a more amenable (or perhaps just less disastrous) environment for everyone.

What we choose to eat can reduce the amount of water needed for agriculture and so can make water available for more essential needs such as drinking and sanitation.

What we choose to eat can have an impact on the welfare given to livestock, the welfare given to the soil, the welfare given to agricultural workers and food producers. (For example a cheap cup of coffee may come at the expense of deforestation where the beans are grown, at the expense of an inadequate price paid to the person growing and processing the beans, at the expense of a poorly paid barista, and at the expense of society if the coffee chain doesn’t pay its taxes. (2))

So yes, the EAT-Lancet Commission is clear that diet is not just about the food we eat but also about the systems that being the food from the farm to the plate. And not only that, these systems also impact our health not just through the food produced but through the impact that food production has on our environment – and thus on our health – and that it has an impact on incomes earned by those in the food industry which again (as we will see in more detail below, impacts health.

Part 2

In many way the Planetary Health Diet as a guide, is not hugely dissimilar from the UK government’s Eat Well diet guide (3) – although the later increases the proportions of plant based foods at the expense of cereals/ starch and animal based foods. This Eat Well guide dates back to 2016 which itself is not very dissimilar to the 2014 guide known as the Eat Well Plate.

The UK government produces a regular National Diet and Nutrition Survey. This is “designed to assess the diet, nutrient intake and nutritional status of the general UK population … is used by UK governments to monitor progress towards achieving diet and nutrition objectives and to develop food and nutrition policies”. (4)

Has the Eat Well guide improved healthy eating in the UK? Sadly not.

According to analysis of the data by Field Doctor, the most recent survey shows :-

only 17% of adults eat at least five portions of fruit and vegetable a day
We eat 100% more sugar, and 25% more saturated fat than is recommended
96% of adults eat an insufficient amount of fibre
18% have sub optimal levels of vitamin D (5)

Whilst the Roadmap for Resilience: A UK Food Plan for 2050 (produced by The Agri-Food for Net Zero Network), notes that under 1% of people in the UK fully meet dietary guidelines and comments: “Poor diets cost the UK dearly – through pressures on the NHS, lost productivity and poor quality of life. Shifting towards healthy diets is a win-win that cuts emissions, saves public money, and helps improve the quality of life and work for productivity.” (6)

And The Broken Plate Report 2025 (produced by the Food Foundation) highlighted the following findings from its research:-:

Over a third of supermarket promotions on food and nonalcoholic drinks are for unhealthy food.
Over a third of food and soft drink advertising spend is on confectionery, snacks, deserts and soft drinks, compared to just 2% on fruit and veg.
Three quarters of the baby and toddler snacks that have front-of-pack promotional claims contain high or medium levels of sugar.

And

On average, healthier foods are more than twice as expensive per calorie as less healthy foods, with healthier food increasing in price at twice the rate in the past two years.
To afford the government-recommended diet, the most deprived fifth of the population would need to spend 45% of their disposable income on food, rising to 70% for those households with children.

And

children in the most deprived fifth of the population are nearly twice as likely to be living with obesity as those in the least deprived fifth by their first year of school
Ditto twice as likely to have tooth decay in their permanent teeth. (7)

Clearly both poverty and the high cost of healthy foods, plays a big part in the unhealthy diets of many people in the UK. Other factors are also relevant, some linked to poverty and inequality such as

lack of access to cooking facilities (especially true of people living in hostels, bed and breakfast or other shared accommodation). Research carried out in 2020 revealed that 1.9 million people in the UK didn’t have a cooker and 900,000 didn’t have a fridge. (8)
Lack of access to local shops selling fresh produce – so called food deserts – affecting 1.2 million people. (9)
Lack of time to prepare and cook meals especially for households juggling multiple jobs and/or long hours (apparently this hasn’t been widely researched (10) but in one recent survey of 2000 adults, 21% sited lack of time as a reason for not eating healthily (11)).

And other factors that have an impact across the board

Power of advertising in promoting ready meals and ultra processed foods. This report from Obesity Action Scotland is very clear as to the advertising has on diets. (12)
Lack of experience of cooking from scratch – again this is area which has received little research so the conclusion is conjecture.

What I think these various surveys show is, that whilst lack of financial resources a major factor in poor diets, unjust social systems may be a more embracing reason. It is unjust social systems that means that households do not have adequate cooking facilities, do not have access to fresh food shops, so not receive adequate incomes and especially so for those households with children. At the same time big businesses have a disproportionate amount of power in influencing what is advertised and to whom, and in controlling (or at least influencing) where and how food is sold, and a major role in continuing to underpay their workforce.

Systems change is essential nationally and globally if we are to ensure everyone has a healthy diet (ideally the Planetary Health Diet) and a healthy environment in which to live.

Postscript

The Food Foundation produced a manifesto report to educate new MPs as to what changes were possible to improve healthy diets for all. https://foodfoundation.org.uk/sites/default/files/2023-09/Election%2024_Manifesto.pdf

(3) https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5bbb790de5274a22415d7fee/Eatwell_guide_colour_edition.pdf

(4) https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-diet-and-nutrition-survey-2019-to-2023/national-diet-and-nutrition-survey-2019-to-2023-report

(5) https://www.fielddoctor.co.uk/health-hub/uk-eating-habits-2025

(6) Page 17 https://www.agrifood4netzero.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/AFN-ROADMAP-SUMMARY.pdf

(7) https://foodfoundation.org.uk/sites/default/files/2025-01/TFF_BP_At a Glance_FINAL.pdf

(8) https://www.turn2us.org.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/press-releases-and-comments/millions-across-the-uk-are-living-without-household-essentials

(9) https://sheffield.ac.uk/social-sciences/news/12-million-living-uk-food-deserts-studys-shows

(10) https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0195666306003813

(11) https://www.psychreg.org/busy-lifestyles-hinder-healthy-eating-many-britons/

(12) https://www.obesityactionscotland.org/media/as3leiwg/food-and-drink-advertising-briefing-2023.pdf

Counting on … 192

21st November 2025

Deforestation of tropical rainforests also takes place to make space for oil-palm plantations. Palm oil is widely used in products as diverse as hair shampoo and chocolate. Clearing the forest to replace it with a monoculture not only impacts climate change but also biodiversity and a loss of the traditional ways of life of the indigenous inhabitants.

“West Papuan Indigenous people call for KitKat boycott over alleged ecocide” Thousands of acres of rainforest is being cleared to produce palm oil, used in popular Nestlé and Mondelēz brands. West Papua’s Indigenous people have called for a boycott of KitKat, Smarties and Aero chocolate, Oreo biscuits and Ritz crackers, and the cosmetics brands Pantene and Herbal Essences, over alleged ecocide in their territory. All are products that contain palm oil and are made, say the campaigners, by companies that source the ingredient directly from West Papua, which has been under Indonesian control since 1963 and where thousands of acres of rainforest are being cleared for agriculture.”(1)

This year’s COP has seen a more visible presence of indigenous people and hopefully their particular insights are being listened to and their particular needs incorporated in the decision making processes.

https://www.business-humanrights.org/en/latest-news/west-papua-indigene-bevölkerung-ruft-zum-boykott-von-nestlé-und-mondelēz-produkten-auf-inkl-unternehmenskommentar/

Counting on … 190

19th November 2025

Tipping points – risks and uncertainty

Whilst there is uncertainty around when a certain tipping point maybe reached – and the uncertainty may be as to what temperature rise will trigger the tipping point, or at what date that might happen or at what speed the tipping point will develop its full impact – the risks are real and quantifiable: if sea ice melts sea levels will rise; if temperatures rise and/ or rainfall diminishes, trees will die; if oceans heat up coral reefs will die.

“Despite the uncertainty, tipping points are too risky to ignore. Rising temperatures put people and economies around the world at greater risk of dangerous conditions.

“But there is still room for preventive actions – every fraction of a degree in warming that humans prevent reduces the risk of runaway climate conditions. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions slows warming and tipping point risks.

“Tipping points highlight the stakes, but they also underscore the climate choices humanity can still make to stop the damage”. (1)

We cannot afford to ignore these risks: we must hope for success in the negotiations that are ongoing at COP30.

(1) https://theconversation.com/what-are-climate-tipping-points-they-sound-scary-especially-for-ice-sheets-and-oceans-but-theres-still-room-for-optimism-265183

Counting on … 189

18th November 2025

Oceanic tipping points

The oceans redistribute cold and warm water across the globe influencing winds – both direction and intensity – and weather patterns. Ocean currents enable the flow of water from hotter to cooler areas (tropics to the poles) and by the flow of water between areas of higher to lower salt density. Here in the UK we particularly benefit from the warmth that the Atlantic currents bring giving us mild winters and year round rainfall.

The driving force for these ocean currents lies in the artic regions. The density of the cold, saline rich waters causes the waters here to sink and as they do this pulls in warmer waters from the tropics. However as sea ice and icecaps melt, so the water becomes less salty, and less inclined to sink, reducing the energy that pulls the oceanic currents. In the North Atlantic this driving force is known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or AMOC.

Here in the UK, our climate and weather patterns are highly dependent on the functioning of AMOC. If this slows or becomes unstable, it will impact temperature and rainfall patterns cross Europe and giving us in the UK and Northern Europe a much colder, wetter climate. And at the same time changing the climate in southern Europe, making it hotter and dryer.

This graphic comes from the IPCC 6th Assessment Report (https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/figures/chapter-9/faq-9-3-figure-1)

Whilst there are signs that AMOC is weakening, it is hard for predict quite how quickly and to what degree it will change as global temperatures rise. On the other hand the potential damage a change in AMOC will cause, should make decision-makers focus on avoiding that as a matter of urgency.

“The risk of a critical AMOC transition is real and very serious, even if we cannot confidently predict when and whether this will happen. We have already left behind the stable Holocene climate in which humanity has thrived (Osman et al., 2021), and the latest IPCC report warns us that beyond 1.5°C of global warming, we move into the realm of “high risk” with respect to climate tipping points (IPCC, 2023).” (1)

(1) – https://tos.org/oceanography/article/is-the-atlantic-overturning-circulation-approaching-a-tipping-point

Further information. This webpage depicts what the climate and weather patterns might be like if the AMOC collapses, an event it suggests could happen by 2050 if global temperatures rise by 2+C – https://amocscenarios.org/?lat=45&lon=-5&model=cc_RCP45&is_amoc_on=false&is_delta=false&metric=warm_days

Proper 28

16th November 2025

Reflection with readings below.

What is the future that lies ahead?

Is it a future that brings us fear?

Perhaps we fear the future because the simple passage of time will age us and bring with it the frailties and challenges of old age? Or maybe we at the younger end of life and fear that soon we will have to take on responsibilities that will take time and energy away from simply doing what we want, knowing that someone else will ensure we have food, clean clothes, warm accommodation etc.

Perhaps we fear the effects of climate change – extremes of turbulent weather, food shortages, floods and rising sea levels, more infectious diseases, the loss of nature?

Perhaps we fear the effects of the rising cost of living, of not being able to afford food, or housing, or travel or even children?

Perhaps we fear the threat of war and violence, the terrorisation of right wing politics that seek to divide and oppress?

Perhaps we fear the end of the world? Maybe even Armageddon?

On the other hand, perhaps we have high hopes for the future. Perhaps we can envisage a world that is fairer, where nature flourishes, where everyone has food and water, shelter and healthcare, education and valued employment? Perhaps we can envisage a world where war and conflict exit only in history books? Perhaps we can envisage a world where everyone rose to the challenge of the climate crisis and secured for all future generations a stable, amenable climate?

In the second temple era, which includes Jesus’s earthly lifetime, there were at least two views amongst Jewish groups as to the end of time. On the one hand there was the view that things on earth would get worse and worse – fire, wars, plagues etc – until there was a final day of destruction when only those who have remained faithful, would be saved and would enter God’s kingdom. On the other, there was a view that as more and more people understood and took on board God’s wisdom, more and more people would turn to God – worshipping at God’s holy mountain – and that a new era of peace and prosperity on earth would materialise: heaven on earth. And any combination in between. I think the same polarity exists today within the broad expanse of Christian beliefs.

Today’s passage from Isaiah describes a positive hope for the future, a future where things – people, wildlife and ecosystems – will all flourish as God creates a new heaven and a new earth. This comes after the earlier part of the chapter which focuses on how suffering in various forms will afflict those who go against God’s will

Today’s gospel also focuses on the destruction and suffering that lies ahead for the world but links that with the opportunities for Jesus’s followers to preach the gospel – the goods news that teaches us how we can create a better world. To be active in this way, to maintain confidence that what we try to do to create a better world in the way Jesus envisages, is at times hard. Both hard to achieve and hard to remain hopeful, is difficult. But then Jesus doesn’t promise that it would be otherwise! On this passage Jesus is once again urging his disciples to remain focused on God and to remain open to receiving that wisdom, that guidance from God. And whilst not articulated, to find strength through the support of each other. The disciples have been chosen by Jesus to be a group who journey together, who eat together, pray together, ask questions and seek answers together.

Isaiah 65:17-25

For I am about to create new heavens
and a new earth;

the former things shall not be remembered
or come to mind.

But be glad and rejoice forever
in what I am creating;

for I am about to create Jerusalem as a joy, and its people as a delight.

I will rejoice in Jerusalem,
and delight in my people;

no more shall the sound of weeping be heard in it,
or the cry of distress.

No more shall there be in it
an infant that lives but a few days,
or an old person who does not live out a lifetime;

for one who dies at a hundred years will be considered a youth,
and one who falls short of a hundred will be considered accursed.

They shall build houses and inhabit them;
they shall plant vineyards and eat their fruit.

They shall not build and another inhabit;
they shall not plant and another eat;

for like the days of a tree shall the days of my people be,
and my chosen shall long enjoy the work of their hands.

They shall not labor in vain,
or bear children for calamity;

for they shall be offspring blessed by the Lord–
and their descendants as well.

Before they call I will answer,
while they are yet speaking I will hear.

The wolf and the lamb shall feed together,
the lion shall eat straw like the ox;
but the serpent– its food shall be dust!

They shall not hurt or destroy
on all my holy mountain, says the Lord.

Canticle 9

The First Song of Isaiah

Isaiah 12:2-6

Surely, it is God who saves me; *
I will trust in him and not be afraid.

For the Lord is my stronghold and my sure defence, *
and he will be my Saviour.

Therefore you shall draw water with rejoicing *
from the springs of salvation.

And on that day you shall say, *
Give thanks to the Lord and call upon his Name;

Make his deeds known among the peoples; *
see that they remember that his Name is exalted.

Sing the praises of the Lord, for he has done great things, *
and this is known in all the world.

Cry aloud, inhabitants of Zion, ring out your joy, *
for the great one in the midst of you is the Holy One of Israel.

Glory to the Father, and to the Son, and to the Holy Spirit: *
as it was in the beginning, is now, and will be for ever. Amen.

2 Thessalonians 3:6-13

Now we command you, beloved, in the name of our Lord Jesus Christ, to keep away from believers who are living in idleness and not according to the tradition that they received from us. For you yourselves know how you ought to imitate us; we were not idle when we were with you, and we did not eat anyone’s bread without paying for it; but with toil and labor we worked night and day, so that we might not burden any of you. This was not because we do not have that right, but in order to give you an example to imitate. For even when we were with you, we gave you this command: Anyone unwilling to work should not eat. For we hear that some of you are living in idleness, mere busybodies, not doing any work. Now such persons we command and exhort in the Lord Jesus Christ to do their work quietly and to earn their own living. Brothers and sisters, do not be weary in doing what is right.

Luke 21:5-19

When some were speaking about the temple, how it was adorned with beautiful stones and gifts dedicated to God, Jesus said, “As for these things that you see, the days will come when not one stone will be left upon another; all will be thrown down.”

They asked him, “Teacher, when will this be, and what will be the sign that this is about to take place?” And he said, “Beware that you are not led astray; for many will come in my name and say, `I am he!’ and, `The time is near!’ Do not go after them.

“When you hear of wars and insurrections, do not be terrified; for these things must take place first, but the end will not follow immediately.” Then he said to them, “Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom; there will be great earthquakes, and in various places famines and plagues; and there will be dreadful portents and great signs from heaven.

“But before all this occurs, they will arrest you and persecute you; they will hand you over to synagogues and prisons, and you will be brought before kings and governors because of my name. This will give you an opportunity to testify. So make up your minds not to prepare your defence in advance; for I will give you words and a wisdom that none of your opponents will be able to withstand or contradict. You will be betrayed even by parents and brothers, by relatives and friends; and they will put some of you to death. You will be hated by all because of my name. But not a hair of your head will perish. By your endurance you will gain your souls.”

Counting on … 188

17th November 2025

Both loss of the Amazon rainforest and alteration to the oceans’s heat distribution properties are potential tipping points. ie they are physical changes that may be irreversible in the human lifetime and may trigger further destructive climate changes.

Amazon Rainforest:

If too greater proportion of the trees are lost, the Amazon basin will cease to exist as a rainforest. Fewer trees will mean less rainfall. Less rainfall and indigenous trees and plants will not thrive. Indigenous wildlife will die out and and indigenous people will loose their way of life. What was rainforest will become a savannah. The risk of wildfires will increase. Rivers that feed the Amazon basin will dwindle and with them the means of local transport. The lack of rainfall in the Amazon basin will also impact other regions. The daily absorption and release of water (known as flying rivers) carries water out from the basin to feed adjoining areas via the South American monsoons. And whereas the Amazon’s rainforest currently absorbs more CO2 than it releases, as savannah, the region will release more carbon dioxide than it absorbs, further adding to the rise in global temperatures. (1)

https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/amazon-rainforest-at-the-threshold-loss-of-forest-worsens-climate-change