Climate change – The Green Tau

Counting on 2026 …. Day 23

17th February

The main cause of climate change is the increase in carbon dioxide emissions – and it is an increase caused by human activities. The following chart shows the annual levels of CO2 emissions measured in parts per million. 350 ppm is the safe planetary boundary. (1)

The second chart shows the correlation between rising levels of CO2 emissions and global temperatures. (2)

Once released into the atmosphere, carbon dioxide remains there for centuries. So it is important to understand not just how much we emit each year, but also how much has already accumulated in the atmosphere and to which we are now adding. The chart below comes from an article produced by Our

World in Data. (3)

Whilst climate deniers may point to periods on the past when temperatures in the UK during the past two thousand years have been higher than average, there has been no period during human history when global temperatures have risen to the levels now seen and nor when carbon emissions HVO been at current levels. We have very clearly passed the safe planetary boundary vis a vis carbon dioxide emissions.

Green Tau: Agriculture and land use – part 1 climate mitigation

14th January 2026

Approximately 12% (47.7 MtCO2e as of 2022) of the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions come from farming. Of that 58% is methane from livestock, a further 28% is nitrous oxides from fertilisers etc and 16% CO2 from motor vehicles etc. (1). Agriculture therefore has a significant part to play in reducing the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions to net zero. To achieve this changes – a transition – in agricultural methods and in the balance between livestock and arable land farming, and between food production and enabling the land to contribute in other ways to the maintenance of a healthy environment, will be necessary. This is noted in the SRUC report submitted in support of the UK’s 7th carbon budget: “The increasing need to reduce agricultural and food related emissions underlines the importance of estimating the mitigation potential in agricultural production in the wider context of emission reductions achievable with changing dietary patterns, land use and the agricultural production mix.” (2)

As the UK moves to a net zero economy, it is obvious that emissions from agriculture need to be reduced – the Climate Change Committee’s target is 21 MtCO2 by 2050. (Agriculture – including deliberate none cultivation of the land – offers opportunities to increase natural carbon absorption which should more than offset this remaining 21Mt of CO2). Every five years the CCC produces a carbon budget. The budget for the current period is the fourth carbon budget (2023-2027). The fifth carbon budget (2028-2032) was approved in 2016. The sixth carbon budget (2033-2037) whilst an amended version was initially approved by government, it was challenged in the courts as being insufficient and a revised budget submitted by the government in October 2025. The seventh carbon budget (2028-2042) was submitted by the CCC in 2025 for review and an agreed version should be ready approval by Parliament in June 2026.

The following infographic dates from 2020 and was produced by the CCC as part of their report, Land use: Policies for a Net Zero UK, which explored how policies could be implemented vis a vis agriculture to achieve the 2050 net zero target. It is gives useful overview of what changes will – are – being required of the agricultural sector. (3)

(NB the updated Land Use Framework (LUF) is still be worked on and is already at least a year late! This policy document won’t per-se specify what land should be used for what but will encourage informed decisions that hopefully produce a win-win solution where there are competing demands -eg food production and housing, nature restoration and new infrastructure. (4))

The seventh budget forecasts that emissions from agriculture should fall to 29.2 MtCO2e by 2040 to 26.4 MtCO2e by 2050 at which point this sum will be balanced by the land-based carbon sequestration which will have been increasing year on year as the impact of planting more trees, restoring peatlands etc takes effect.

The budget envisages a reduction in numbers of livestock, releasing land for growing other uses – eg horticulture, woodlands, and bio-energy crops (for use as a short term transition fuel) etc. This also envisages a reduction in consumption of meat and dairy products by consumers. There is no specific mention of growing beans and pulses but this would be essential to provide a sustainable plant based alternative to meat and dairy products.

The budget also envisages an increase in woodlands (mix of broadleaf and coniferous trees) to cover 16% of the UK, as well as year on year increase in agroforestry (this is still novel in the UK). To meet sequestration targets much of this tree planting needs to happen by 2030. The budget also relies on a 40% increase in hedgerows by 2050 as another boost for carbon sequestration and for biodiversity.

The budget envisages rewetting and restoring both upland and lowland peatlands – 3% of the latter by 2040 and 56% by 2050. Again this adaptation needs to implemented sooner rather than later to maximise the benefits of carbon sequestration. This critical adaptation will include rewetting significant areas of peatlands in East Anglia currently used for growing vegetables. Alternative areas of the country would have to be developed for vegetable growing. The budget also envisages 10% of horticulture will be taking place under glass by 2050.

The budget recognises that farmers will need financial support as they negotiate this transition. It will be important that farmers have longer term certainty as regards these changes and the support they will receive.

Government policies also need to promote the switch by consumers from meat and dairy to plant based alternatives. This could promote the health benefits of eating a richer plant-based diet.

As part of the process of producing the seventh carbon budget, the CCC convened a citizens’ panel to explore how these changes would impact households. It was generally accepted that there was a need to make changes in diet with the proviso that information should be made available showing the different impacts of alternative foods. The panel favoured a shift to healthier, home cooked foods and envisages that education could play a role in enabling plant-based meal preparation. There was agreement that plant-based foods needed to be competitively priced compared with alternatives – especially for those on low incomes. This is something that may require government directives for the food industry – especially as many of the panelist’s were uneasy about replacing meat and dairy with highly processed options such as precision fermentation. The panel was also concerned that policies should ensure the proper remuneration of farmers.

To read either a summary of the seventh carbon budget or the full report see :-

The Seventh Carbon Budget

Further reading – https://www.sustainweb.org/news/feb25-seventh-carbon-budget-climate-change-committee/

However how is this transition to be financed or effected?

(1) https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/agri-climate-report-2024/agri-climate-report-2024

(2) https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Greenhouse-gas-abatement-in-UK-agriculture-2024-2050-Scotlands-Rural-College.pdf

(3) https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/land-use-policies-for-a-net-zero-uk/

(4) https://www.nffn.org.uk/resources/land-use-framework-for-england-what-is-it-and-what-does-it-mean-for-farming

Counting on … day 207

18th December 2025

How do we see the impact of exceeding the planetary boundaries for fresh water?

“Climate change has become the main global driver of freshwater disruption. A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture and changes how and where rain falls, leading to more intense floods in some regions and severe droughts in others. These shifts are transforming long-established rainfall and river patterns, creating new and unpredictable hydrological conditions that put pressure on both ecosystems and human societies.” (1)

A disruption in rainfall patterns can mean either more or less rain than usual, or more rainfall but less often so that rainfall is more intense. This can lead to the drying out of wetlands, the lowering of lake and river levels and the disruption of the ecosystems those water features supported. In the Amazon basin we are seeing river levels drop significantly impacting local communities and their livelihoods and destabilisation of the rainforest such that trees, plants and creatures are lost.

Disruption means loss of soil moisture. Not only does this impact plant growth and thus a whole food chains, it also makes landscapes more vulnerable to droughts and wildfires. The UK saw a record number of wildfires this year.

Excessive amounts of rainfall over a prolonged period, or concentrated into a short time frame, causes extreme flooding that disrupts habitats, destroys infrastructure, displaces people, erodes soils and causes devastating landslides. We have seen many examples of this in the recent Asian super typhoons.

Disruption to normal rainfall patterns leads to water scarcity. A lack of rain depletes water supplies, whilst infrequent intense rainfall runs quickly of the land, again failing to restore water stocks in reservoirs and rivers. Warmer winters diminishes the replenishment of glaciers, and increase the rate at which they melt. Together this reduces the flow of water into rivers during summer periods aggravating water scarcity. Both in Iran and in South Africa, whole communities are face a complete lack of drinking water as droughts combine with atypical rainfall patterns.

https://www.planetaryhealthcheck.org/boundary/freshwater-change/

Counting on … 197

2nd December 2025

The imbalance of the nitrogen cycle also causes air pollution. Whilst nitrogen based fertilisers in the soil and water are being consumed by various microbes, processing nitrites in to become a nitrates which can be absorbed by the plants, nitrogen oxide (NO) is released as a bi-product. (1)

Nitrogen oxide, like carbon dioxide, is a greenhouse gas, but with 300 times the warming potential.

Nitrogen oxide readily reacts with other gases in the atmosphere to form nitrogen dioxide which is a healthy hazard inflaming airways and increasing susceptibility to respiratory infections and allergens.

Together nitrogen oxide and nitrogen dioxide are nitrous oxides or NOx. (2)

Whilst agriculture is the main source of nitrous oxides, they are also emitted through the burning of fossil fuels – including from petrol and diesel power vehicles, diesel powered shipping and railway engines, and from aviation.

(1) https://www.bbc.co.uk/future/article/20210603-nitrous-oxide-the-worlds-forgotten-greenhouse-gas

(2) https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/emissions-of-air-pollutants/emissions-of-air-pollutants-in-the-uk-nitrogen-oxides-nox

(3) https://ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-sector

Counting on … 189

18th November 2025

Oceanic tipping points

The oceans redistribute cold and warm water across the globe influencing winds – both direction and intensity – and weather patterns. Ocean currents enable the flow of water from hotter to cooler areas (tropics to the poles) and by the flow of water between areas of higher to lower salt density. Here in the UK we particularly benefit from the warmth that the Atlantic currents bring giving us mild winters and year round rainfall.

The driving force for these ocean currents lies in the artic regions. The density of the cold, saline rich waters causes the waters here to sink and as they do this pulls in warmer waters from the tropics. However as sea ice and icecaps melt, so the water becomes less salty, and less inclined to sink, reducing the energy that pulls the oceanic currents. In the North Atlantic this driving force is known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or AMOC.

Here in the UK, our climate and weather patterns are highly dependent on the functioning of AMOC. If this slows or becomes unstable, it will impact temperature and rainfall patterns cross Europe and giving us in the UK and Northern Europe a much colder, wetter climate. And at the same time changing the climate in southern Europe, making it hotter and dryer.

This graphic comes from the IPCC 6th Assessment Report (https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/figures/chapter-9/faq-9-3-figure-1)

Whilst there are signs that AMOC is weakening, it is hard for predict quite how quickly and to what degree it will change as global temperatures rise. On the other hand the potential damage a change in AMOC will cause, should make decision-makers focus on avoiding that as a matter of urgency.

“The risk of a critical AMOC transition is real and very serious, even if we cannot confidently predict when and whether this will happen. We have already left behind the stable Holocene climate in which humanity has thrived (Osman et al., 2021), and the latest IPCC report warns us that beyond 1.5°C of global warming, we move into the realm of “high risk” with respect to climate tipping points (IPCC, 2023).” (1)

(1) – https://tos.org/oceanography/article/is-the-atlantic-overturning-circulation-approaching-a-tipping-point

Further information. This webpage depicts what the climate and weather patterns might be like if the AMOC collapses, an event it suggests could happen by 2050 if global temperatures rise by 2+C – https://amocscenarios.org/?lat=45&lon=-5&model=cc_RCP45&is_amoc_on=false&is_delta=false&metric=warm_days

Counting on … 185

12th November 2025

Cutting methane emissions is clearly a quick and important way of reducing the short term damaging effect of greenhouse gas emissions, but unless emissions from fossil fuels are also tackled, the climate crisis will only increase. National governments and fossil fuel companies need to legislate and implement (respectively) plans to end fossil fuel production. Yet unbelievably across the world countries are still planning to further expand fossil fuel production!

“The increases in fossil fuel production estimated under the government plans and projections pathways would lead to global production levels in 2030 that are 500%, 31%, and 92% higher for coal, oil, and gas, respectively, than the median 1.5ºC-consistent pathway.” (1)

The International Energy Agency itself reported in 2021 that there was no need for new developments: sufficient oil and gas production is already in place to meet global needs as the world transitions to renewable energy. (2)

Clearly this is an issue that needs to be addressed during COP30.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/sep/22/fossil-fuels-coal-gas-oil-extraction-climate-goals-beyond-reach?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Counting on … 184

11th November 2025

CO2 is the main GHG but methane is another, particularly potent, GHG. Methane doesn’t last as long in the atmosphere (ten to twelve years compared with hundreds or even thousands of years for carbon dioxide) but its warming effect is greater than that of carbon dioxide – as much as 80% more. (1)

40% of methane emissions are natural; 60% are manmade. Methane levels are now two-and-a-half times greater than pre-industrial levels.

Methane levels are still rising but clearly if emissions were curtailed it would help address the short term impact of climate change and rising temperatures. Frustratingly the IEA reports that “around 40% of today’s methane emissions from fossil fuels could be avoided at no net cost” (2) Methane emissions from fossil fuels can be reduced by reducing flaring and venting and by curtailing leaks! NB Natural gas is 80-95% methane.

To date methane emissions reduction has been via voluntary pledges, which are not tackling the problem. This is something that needs to be addressed during COP30. “ Durwood Zaelke, the president of the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development, said countries must sign a new global agreement on methane rather than sticking with the non-binding pledge. “With emissions still high, the voluntary pledge is clearly not enough to keep us from passing the fast-approaching tipping points,” he said. “We need a more muscular binding methane agreement.” (3)

https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/carbon-management-and-fossil-fuels/methane-emissions_en

(2) https://www.iea.org/reports/global-methane-tracker-2024/key-findings

(3) https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/nov/10/rich-countries-have-lost-enthusiasm-for-tackling-climate-crisis-says-cop30-chief?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Counting on … 183

10th November 2025

COP30 starts this week in Belém, Brazil. Global greenhouse gas emissions are continuing to rise as are global temperatures. The real hope is the all the parties will agree to transition rapidly away from fossil fuels – fossil fuels are the single biggest cause of greenhouse gas emissions. Unless they are eliminated, there is no way we can curb, let alone rein in, rising global temperatures and all that that will do to destroy the ecosystems in which we rely.

The main greenhouse gas, and one most easily measured, is carbon dioxide. Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere keeps in heat. Without some CO2 in the atmosphere our planet would be very cold.

CO2 levels in the atmosphere (measured in parts per million) have varied throughout geological time. This graph (1) shows atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere over the last 800,000 years (red line). CO2 levels were lower during the ice ages, and higher during the warmer interglacial periods. During this entire era, CI2 levels never exceeded 300 PPM until the modern era. The graphic also shows the differences global temperatures above and below the mean – the temperature anomaly.

There is a clear correlation between CO2 levels and temperature fluctuations. But more significantly the graph shows how rapidly both CO2 levels and temperatures are rising. It is a rate of change that is not due to natural deviations but to the impact of human activity.

(1) – https://theconversation.com/the-three-minute-story-of-800-000-years-of-climate-change-with-a-sting-in-the-tail-73368

9th November 2025

Reflection with readings below

The first chapter of the book of Haggai is set a month before today’s passage. In it Haggai is told by God that it is not yet time to rebuild the Lord’s house. But then God speaks again asking Haggai to consider the wellbeing of the people – they have planted much but harvested little; they have something to drink but not enough to satisfy their thirst; they have clothes but not enough to keep warm. And God says “Give careful thought to your ways.”

It seems that God is setting the ground – maybe enacting a parable – that challenges the people to understand that there are different ways of living. They can live according to the ways of the past, of convention, which don’t satisfy their needs, or they can live according to the ways of God which will satisfy all their needs. And so it is in the next month that God’s word to Haggai calls on the people to restore God’s house and so restore their own well-being – and handsomely so with much wealth!

For the people of Judah, the temple was the house of God that had been destroyed by the Babylonian invaders. Now that some of those exiled to Babylon have returned to Jerusalem, the desire is to rebuild the temple. But for us in the 2st century might we rather consider the Earth as being God’s house?

“The God who made the world and all things in it, since He is Lord of heaven and earth, does not dwell in temples made with hands” Acts 17:24

And if we look at the Earth as God’s temple, do we see it as a place that has been well cared for, a place of peace and beauty? Or do we see a place that is broken and damaged, and in need of repair?

When we look at the wellbeing of our fellow creatures (human and nonhuman)do we not see communities that do not have enough to eat and drink, that do not have adequate clothing and protection? Could that be because we are not living in accordance with God’s ways? Are we misusing the world’s resources such that the needs of many are not satisfied? Surely it is therefore time to reassess and redirect the way we live?

Absolutely! Time and again we hear scientists warning us that our continued use of fossil fuels and of greenhouse gas emitting practices is continuing to fuel the climate crisis. We are now on track for more than 2C of warming. This will ensure brings even more extreme weather events – droughts, storms, wild fires and hurricanes such as Melissa last week – more food shortages (over the last three years, British farmers have lost the equivalent of a year’s supply of bread because of adverse weather affecting harvests) – more deaths from excess heat, the increasing loss of species and destruction of delicate ecosystems, etc.

We also hear social welfare and justice campaigners telling us that the gap between rich and poor is growing; that people’s lives are being diminished not because the resources aren’t there, but because they are not being made available; that they are not being shared fairly. We hear that mental ill health is rocketing; that corporate power is trumping democracy; that the justice systems favours governments over individuals, and big businesses over everyone. Injustice is endemic world wide.

And we hear of governments ignoring the warning signs, of governments focusing on those with loudest voices, of governments focusing on the next election not our corporate long term survival. Next week COP30 begins its deliberations. Participating nations knew well in advance that they would have to come to this meeting with updated plans to reduce their national emissions in line with the net zero targets. In fact they have known this since the signing the Paris Agreement in 2015. Yet many have not even submitted a plan, and of those that have, none have been sufficiently ambitious to keep the world on track to avoid even a 2C rise in temperatures!

Absolutely it is time to reassess and redirect the way we live.

Haggai 1:15b-2:9

In the second year of King Darius, in the seventh month, on the twenty-first day of the month, the word of the Lord came by the prophet Haggai, saying: Speak now to Zerubbabel son of Shealtiel, governor of Judah, and to Joshua son of Jehozadak, the high priest, and to the remnant of the people, and say, Who is left among you that saw this house in its former glory? How does it look to you now? Is it not in your sight as nothing? Yet now take courage, O Zerubbabel, says the Lord; take courage, O Joshua, son of Jehozadak, the high priest; take courage, all you people of the land, says the Lord; work, for I am with you, says the Lord of hosts, according to the promise that I made you when you came out of Egypt. My spirit abides among you; do not fear. For thus says the Lord of hosts: Once again, in a little while, I will shake the heavens and the earth and the sea and the dry land; and I will shake all the nations, so that the treasure of all nations shall come, and I will fill this house with splendour, says the Lord of hosts. The silver is mine, and the gold is mine, says the Lord of hosts. The latter splendour of this house shall be greater than the former, says the Lord of hosts; and in this place I will give prosperity, says the Lord of hosts.

Psalm 145:1-5, 18-22

1 I will exalt you, O God my King, *
and bless your Name for ever and ever.

2 Every day will I bless you *
and praise your Name for ever and ever.

3 Great is the Lord and greatly to be praised; *
there is no end to his greatness.

4 One generation shall praise your works to another *
and shall declare your power.

5 I will ponder the glorious splendour of your majesty *
and all your marvellous works.

18 The Lord is righteous in all his ways *
and loving in all his works.

19 The Lord is near to those who call upon him, *
to all who call upon him faithfully.

20 He fulfils the desire of those who fear him; *
he hears their cry and helps them.

21 The Lord preserves all those who love him, *
but he destroys all the wicked.

22 My mouth shall speak the praise of the Lord; *
let all flesh bless his holy Name for ever and ever.

2 Thessalonians 2:1-5, 13-17

As to the coming of our Lord Jesus Christ and our being gathered together to him, we beg you, brothers and sisters, not to be quickly shaken in mind or alarmed, either by spirit or by word or by letter, as though from us, to the effect that the day of the Lord is already here. Let no one deceive you in any way; for that day will not come unless the rebellion comes first and the lawless one is revealed, the one destined for destruction. He opposes and exalts himself above every so-called god or object of worship, so that he takes his seat in the temple of God, declaring himself to be God. Do you not remember that I told you these things when I was still with you?

But we must always give thanks to God for you, brothers and sisters beloved by the Lord, because God chose you as the first fruits for salvation through sanctification by the Spirit and through belief in the truth. For this purpose he called you through our proclamation of the good news, so that you may obtain the glory of our Lord Jesus Christ. So then, brothers and sisters, stand firm and hold fast to the traditions that you were taught by us, either by word of mouth or by our letter.

Now may our Lord Jesus Christ himself and God our Father, who loved us and through grace gave us eternal comfort and good hope, comfort your hearts and strengthen them in every good work and word.

Luke 20:27-38

Some Sadducees, those who say there is no resurrection, came to Jesus and asked him a question, “Teacher, Moses wrote for us that if a man’s brother dies, leaving a wife but no children, the man shall marry the widow and raise up children for his brother. Now there were seven brothers; the first married, and died childless; then the second and the third married her, and so in the same way all seven died childless. Finally the woman also died. In the resurrection, therefore, whose wife will the woman be? For the seven had married her.”

Jesus said to them, “Those who belong to this age marry and are given in marriage; but those who are considered worthy of a place in that age and in the resurrection from the dead neither marry nor are given in marriage. Indeed they cannot die anymore, because they are like angels and are children of God, being children of the resurrection. And the fact that the dead are raised Moses himself showed, in the story about the bush, where he speaks of the Lord as the God of Abraham, the God of Isaac, and the God of Jacob. Now he is God not of the dead, but of the living; for to him all of them are alive.”

Counting on … 179

4th November 2025

Planetary Health Diet

The EAT-LancetCommission is a global, interdisciplinary group of world-leading researchers with expertise in nutrition, health, agriculture, sustainability, social justice, and policy – working together towards a healthy, sustainable, and just food system. (1) In 2019 this group’s research developed the Planetary Health Diet being a diet that is both healthier for us and for the planet. It is a dietary outline that can be adapted to suit different cultural traditions and different social contexts – in other words it is a diet that everyone could follow with out difficulty.

“The PHD is rich in plants: whole grains, fruits, vegetables, nuts, and legumes comprise a large proportion of foods consumed, with only moderate or small amounts of fish, dairy, and meat recommended.” (2)

This year their research was updated producing the 2025 EAT-Lancet Commission Report. This report demonstrates that the PHD could both bring the human behaviour back within safe planetary boundaries as well as cutting greenhouse gas emissions.

This 2025 report outlines eight areas where transformation can lead to positive outcomes. Protect and promote traditional healthy diets –

Create accessible and affordable food environments that increase demand for healthy diets
Implement sustainable production practices that store carbon, create habitat, and improve water quality and availability
Halt agricultural conversion of intact ecosystems
Reduce food loss and waste
Secure decent working conditions across the food system
Ensure meaningful voice and representation for food systems workers
Recognise and protect marginalised groups (3)

https://eatforum.org/eat-lancet

(2) https://eatforum.org/eat-lancet/the-planetary-health-diet/

(3) https://eatforum.org/update/eat-lancet-commission-warns-food-systems-breach-planetary-limits/