imagining – The Green Tau

Green Tau: issue 63

4th February 2023

Imagining life in 2033 – an alternative scenario

By 2033 we should be at least half way to net zero. How will things have changed? What will daily life look like?

A few weeks ago I wrote a piece imagining it as a letter from the future. That piece was positive and realistic about what we could achieve. But what if that optimism is misplaced? How will it be if everything that could have been done hasn’t? What if we don’t get on top of our net zero targets?

In many ways life in 2033 is not that different from in 2023. I still live in the same house, with the same husband and even the same – now rather elderly – cat. We had hoped to replace our equally elderly solar panels but production of these is so limited that there is an 18 month waiting list. Similarly we are still waiting to upgrade our storage batteries. So like many people we still have to rely on our gas boiler for heating but this is expensive and as far as possible we rely instead on extra layers of clothing. I have finally managed to persuade Paul to wear leggings under his trousers – I assure him that they are not long john’s in another guise! Everyone in our end of the street has an electric car now, as well as off street parking and recharging points.This allows us to use the car battery as an electric supply during peak periods (recharging off peak later) for which the National Grid rewards us. The only benefits those with off street charging points, which even here in East Sheen is a minority.

What you will notice about East Sheen is the sparsity of combustion engines. Everyone has replaced their old car with an electric model, but just as with the combustion cars, each new model of electric car is wider, taller and longer than the last. The roads are just as congested as before and parking is even more a premium. The parking issue may push more people to use car clubs which would be a step forwards. With congested roads and a lack of investment in public transport and cycling infrastructure, average journey times are still increasing – although this is prompting some people to return to home working which is not part of the government’s plan!

The growth in electric vehicles has had a significant impact on energy costs. Powering all these vehicles as opposed to powering electric buses and trains (much more energy efficient per passenger mile) has not been matched by investment in electrical power plants and the laws of supply and demand have come into play. For those of us with financial capacity this is something we live with but for people on low incomes, it has been horrific. In many part of the country – both urban and rural – there are many homes which are no longer connect to the grid as their occupants cannot afford either the per unit cost nor the standing charge. Instead such households use candles for lighting and camping stoves for a minimal amount of cooking. Heating is by body heat only, helped by fleece onesies and layers of jumpers. Schools open early and close late so that children can a) be some where warm, b) get a hot meal (the government was forced into providing all primary pupils with free school lunches in 2024), and c) have good light by which to do their homework, and power to recharge laptops.

The energy shortage has produced some interesting innovations. On street corners you can regularly find ‘electric’ bike stands. For a fee the rider pedal the stationary bike and by so doing recharges your mobile phone, laptop or battery pack!

As energy prices have risen so has the cost of rail travel. The government has been forced to provide low paid workers (not just minimum wage earners but teachers and nurses) with free local bus passes to enable them to get to work! This was first introduced by Sadiq Khan for London in 2023. People don’t travel as readily or as far as we did in 2023.

Health and social care continues to be an issue. We now have a divided health service – as good as you can afford if you can go private; second rate if you rely on the NHS. (By way of comparison think about how dental care worked in 2023: if you had the money you could have excellent dental care; if not then you had to wait for treatment and the treatments available were limited usually involving extractions rather than say a crown or implant.) A similar set up exists for social care, with families increasingly having to provide care for family members.

Life expectancy rates continue to drop for the majority of people. For those in the most deprived areas, male life expectancy is now 69 years, and for females 75 years. However for those in the least deprived areas, life expectancy has plateaued at 83 and 86 years respectively. Major factors here are the affect of the high cost of living which for many people is unaffordable, and the adverse affects of the weather. Summers now consistently have heat waves when temperatures exceed 44C and with night time temperatures that don’t fall below the mid 30sC. These can last from between just a few days to a fortnight – when they usually end with a cataclysmic downpour. These high temperatures, particularly when they combine with high night time temperatures have continued to cause fatalities amongst the young, the elderly and those with health issues. It is not unusual for excess deaths in these periods to measure more than 100 people per day. The flooding in the aftermath adds to the numbers of deaths we now accept as normal.

In the winter, the weather fluctuates between very mild spells, very cold spells, and in between days of storm force winds and torrential rain. The cold snaps are a major cause of deaths in winter – 15,000 a week is not unusual. And again this number increases when combined with flooding.

Flooding is a recurring problem. It is not just from short spells of torrential rain, but from rising sea levels. A sea level rise of 15cm doesn’t sound like much but when that is added to higher tides, and stronger winds which effectively heap up the waves as they are funnelled into the valleys of river estuaries, it can actually be experienced as 75cm. The Thames embankment walls have already been raised by 1m, using glass where there are tourist views to be preserved, but reinforced concrete elsewhere. Further upstream many householders can no longer get house insurance because of the increased risk of flooding. In East Sheen we have had 3 floods since 2023 when the water has reached the South Circular.

Floods and heatwaves are not only adversely affecting human life but also wildlife, arable crops and farm livestock. Some farmers have switched from growing potatoes to sweet potatoes, from spinach to lambs lettuce, from wheat to sorghum and millet, as well as growing chick peas, haricot and soya beans, Others are experimenting with planting trees alongside grass crops so that both the grasses and the livestock can benefit from the shade. Others are experimenting with hydroponic cultivation as a way of making best use of limited water supplies. In the southern half of the country there are a growing number of olive and pistachio orchards, whilst much horticultural farming has moved northwards – tomatoes from Newcastle, strawberries from Scotland. One thing everyone has noticed is the growing cost of producing, and therefore of buying, food. This is due not just to the difficulties of farming in the UK but also the climate induced crisis in agriculture across the world. Coffee is no longer grown in Kenya and Ethiopia, sheep are no longer farmed in Australia and wheat no longer comes from the American prairies.

The crisis in agriculture is felt not just in rising food prices but also in conflict and migration. The war in Ukraine may have prompted a reassessment of our use of gas, but was not itself driven by climate issues. Since the we have seen conflict along the length of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, and the Nile and its tributaries, as nations previously reliant on these waters compete to control its limited flow. Similar conflicts are also taking place along the Congo river where they are compounded by the desire to protect the oil supply now coming on tap for the same region. All these areas of water shortages and armed conflict have produced an ever growing flow of people into Europe with a real focus of reaching Northern Europe where water security seems more likely. In the United Sates there has been an exodus of people from drought strike states putting increasing pressure on coastal states where there is another but smaller movement of people away from land inundated by rising sea levels. Australia ha a particular issue with pressure from the rest of the world that they should accommodate Pacific Islanders who have been rendered island-less.

Life is much harder for everyone, but especially for those with limited resources. The UK is a much more divided nation. On the one extreme there are those who have no regular income and who are reliant on food banks, second hand clothes and warm hubs. Home is usually a single room with no provision of either kitchen or bathroom as these have become luxuries – people’s cooked meals com from soup kitchens and laundering and washing happens in the equivalent wash and shower room at the local amenity centre. It feels as if we are returning to the Victorian model of boarding house.

At the other end of the spectrum are those with jobs and/or income streams who can afford what ever they want and who can live lives completely separate from crisis. In between is a spectrum of those who can afford food, and/ or accommodation, and /or heating, and/ or transport, and/or leisure activities. A lot of people find that they can afford some but not all of these, whilst some struggle to afford just one. There is an ever increasing number of people who choose to forgo parenthood so that they can afford other parts of life.

We are still asking ourselves if there is just enough time to keep global temperature increase below below 3C. It seems to be human nature to always have hope despite the odds!

Green Tau: issue 62

20th January 2023

Imagining life in 2033

By 2033 we should be at least half way to net zero. How will things have changed? What will daily life look like? Imagine a letter from the future …

In many ways life in 2033 is not that different from in 2023. I still live in the same house, with the same husband and even the same – now rather elderly – cat. We have recently replaced the solar panels on our roof and are now not just self sufficient for energy but are regularly put electricity back into the grid. Talking of solar panels, every house in our street now has them, as does the local school and our church – and you have probably guessed, very few buildings now-a-days have gas boilers.

Other changes in our street include more trees, which provide welcome shade during heat waves, and fewer cars. Being an affluent area, most people have hung into their electric cars despite the rising ULEZ charge, but as in most urban areas many more journeys are now made by cycle or public transport. All main roads now have a dedicated cycle track wide enough for cargo and family bikes. Buses and suburban trains have all been free for the last five years leading to less cars using the roads and, therefore, faster journey times for buses! Suburban trains run on a regular ten minute interval and trains on the mainlines operate on a ‘Taktfahrplan’ similar to the Swiss one, ensuring good connections on all routes. Most people opt for the half price rail card, especially families as children travel free.

Another change you might notice is the number of cargo cycles. They were certainly around in 2023 but the exception rather than the rule. Increases in road tax in 2025 saw a rapid expansion of delivery bikes, and electric ones regularly use the vehicle lane on the main roads where they can move at the same speed as other users – oh yes, I should have pointed out that in London the speed limit is now 20mph on all roads. The NHS has certainly benefited from the upswing in cycling. It has made us fitter and the reduced particulate pollution from tyres and brakes has helped reduce breathing problems. There is talk now of replacing buses with trams.

You will be pleased to hear that we do still have a national health service. There were some dodgy moments when it looked like the system might collapse, but with the influence of a people’s assembly, the whole health and welfare system is being overhauled. There is a focus on preventative care and long term investment plan – improving the health of children (physical, mental and educational) will have profound benefits for our society but the financial savings may take 20 to 30 years to kick in.

It has been surprising how much addressing the climate crisis has actually improved people’s wellbeing. All school and institutional meals are now all plant based, and I hope you are not surprised to hear that plant based dishes now occupy at least 50% of all restaurant menus. Vegan cooking is now mainstream although at the time the All Vegan Bake Off series in 2024 seemed radical. The change in our diets has not only improved our health but has changed the appearance of the rural landscape. With fewer livestock, those that are kept have a much higher welfare standard. And you will find that many farms and some of the larger rural homes keep a couple of sheep or pigs as outdoor pets. The UK is now self sufficient in growing wheat, whilst other arable land has been given over to growing a vast number of different fruits and vegetables. It has been a horticultural revolution with drip feed irrigation and small robots and drones making the work less back breaking. Work in this sector is now well paid and popular. Orchards have expanded and now encompass new trees such as olives, walnuts, pistachios and almonds, and are often intercropped with shade loving crops. The amount of trees in the landscape is perhaps the biggest change that you would notice. Not only have we seen orchards expand, but many areas have been rewilded with wide hedgerows, copses and new woodlands. The latest nature report has shown an increase in biodiversity in the UK. It is a revival that has had to be worked at but is now reaping rewards. Nightingales are now often recorded – but not necessarily in Berkeley Square! – and a new generation of children are listening out for the cuckoos in spring. Walks and trips to wildlife hides are increasingly popular as there is now so much more wildlife to see!

The Upper Richmond Road is still our main shopping area but it does look more attractive with more trees and well-stocked planters. If you want a few herbs, it’s a case of pick your own. I was going to say the traffic moves more slowly as back in 2023 the speed limit was 30mph. But now-a-days the traffic moves at a pretty constant 20mph which I’m sure is faster than it was then. I can remember sitting in the Artisan cafe watching the traffic remain stationary as the lights went from red to green and back to red. Traffic lanes are narrower now to make space for the cycle lanes. Milestone Green has finally been revamped (that’s been at least ten years in the planning) with new seating, a water feature and a large chess board.

There are a few different shops, such as The Splash – a bike wash coffee shop where customers enjoy a coffee and cake whilst their bike is cleaned, oil and tyres pumped. There’s the now standard repair shop, Repairs are Us, where can get virtual anything domestic repaired, and next to the Fara charity shop, is Tailor Tricks where they readjust any clothes you buy at Fara (or elsewhere) to fit. If you like a skirt but is too long or trousers that are too wide, they speedily make the adjustments. At the other end of the market is the made to measure fashion outlet. Video loops from the latest catwalks plus magazines and fabric swatches all entice you to try something new. Interactive screens show you what you would look like in these garments, and once you have made your choice, the workshop sets to work and within hours your made to measure outfit is ready.

Of course there are more cycle shops – and cycle accessory shops. The pet shops still thrive as we are increasingly aware of the value of pets for our mental wellbeing. Another growth has been in plant shops as we increasingly enjoy filling our homes with living things – as well as a growth in companies offering plant care services. Sheen also has its own coffee roastery, brewery, two new bakeries and a nut-cheese delicatessen. The local council has made a real effort to promote local businesses with preferential rates for local businesses.

Packaging has definitely changed. Initially it was the ending of single use plastic cups and boxes in 2023 that stimulated change. As suppliers adapted the packaging they produced, so supermarkets adopted this same packaging for ready meals, salads and pre-packed fruit. A year later reverse vending machines for bottles became obligatory – in supermarkets initially but quickly afterwards in all shops selling bottled goods. This included both glass and reusable plastic bottles, glass jars and reusable yogurt pots. All single use packaging is now either recyclable or compostable. The effect on refuse and recycling services has been marked. With less to throw into dustbins and recycling bins, most weekly collections have been replaced by fortnightly ones – a useful cost saving for councils.

As we have adapted to more extreme weather conditions so we have been adapting our buildings. Awnings that pull out are popular for both shops, houses and flats to provide shade in the summer but there can be problems if these are not safely retracted in advance of strong winds. The met office app usually provides adequate advance warning. Shops tend to have more substantial affairs that also provide protection from the rain. Keeping customers dry is a definite plus for trade!

Overhead there are far fewer airplanes – you might recall from the first covid lock down how surprised we were when the planes stopped and we could hear birds singing. Well that’s what we have now on a daily basis. There is a heavy tax to be paid for air flights (although there is an annual tax allowance that can put towards long haul flights). Air freight is gradually being replaced by rail freight and marine cargo vessels. Some capacity in the system has been freed up as we are no longer shipping oil, gas and coal around the world, and there has also been a sharp decline in the amount of animal feed and meat being shipped. Increasingly popular are cargo ships linking up with educational packages. You can take a ten day crossing over the Atlantic and use the time to engage in a fully immersive language course, learn to play bridge, or do a page to stage theatre production.

Ten years on things have changed but it is not a totally different world nor a life lacking in comfort. If anything we have a healthier and happier lifestyle.