Counting On … – Page 3

Counting on … 189

18th November 2025

Oceanic tipping points

The oceans redistribute cold and warm water across the globe influencing winds – both direction and intensity – and weather patterns. Ocean currents enable the flow of water from hotter to cooler areas (tropics to the poles) and by the flow of water between areas of higher to lower salt density. Here in the UK we particularly benefit from the warmth that the Atlantic currents bring giving us mild winters and year round rainfall.

The driving force for these ocean currents lies in the artic regions. The density of the cold, saline rich waters causes the waters here to sink and as they do this pulls in warmer waters from the tropics. However as sea ice and icecaps melt, so the water becomes less salty, and less inclined to sink, reducing the energy that pulls the oceanic currents. In the North Atlantic this driving force is known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or AMOC.

Here in the UK, our climate and weather patterns are highly dependent on the functioning of AMOC. If this slows or becomes unstable, it will impact temperature and rainfall patterns cross Europe and giving us in the UK and Northern Europe a much colder, wetter climate. And at the same time changing the climate in southern Europe, making it hotter and dryer.

This graphic comes from the IPCC 6th Assessment Report (https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/figures/chapter-9/faq-9-3-figure-1)

Whilst there are signs that AMOC is weakening, it is hard for predict quite how quickly and to what degree it will change as global temperatures rise. On the other hand the potential damage a change in AMOC will cause, should make decision-makers focus on avoiding that as a matter of urgency.

“The risk of a critical AMOC transition is real and very serious, even if we cannot confidently predict when and whether this will happen. We have already left behind the stable Holocene climate in which humanity has thrived (Osman et al., 2021), and the latest IPCC report warns us that beyond 1.5°C of global warming, we move into the realm of “high risk” with respect to climate tipping points (IPCC, 2023).” (1)

(1) – https://tos.org/oceanography/article/is-the-atlantic-overturning-circulation-approaching-a-tipping-point

Further information. This webpage depicts what the climate and weather patterns might be like if the AMOC collapses, an event it suggests could happen by 2050 if global temperatures rise by 2+C – https://amocscenarios.org/?lat=45&lon=-5&model=cc_RCP45&is_amoc_on=false&is_delta=false&metric=warm_days

Counting on … 187

14th November 2025

Not only have humans been adding excessive amounts of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere (largely though burning fossil fuels), we have also been destroying the Earth’s own ways of absorbing carbon dioxide. Two of the main ‘carbon sinks’ (as they are known) are forests, especially rain forests, and oceans.

Loss of rainforest in the Amazon continues to increase due to deforestation (principally clearing tree to grow other crops) and wild fires (which are increasing as temperatures rise and as droughts become more severe). (1)

It is sad to report that in the leaders’ summit in advance of COP30, the UK government determined not to help fund the Tropical Forests Forever Fund (TFFF). The TFFF aim is to raise $25 billion from developed countries attending COP30, which will underpin a $125 billion fund (p rest coming from private investors) to protect rainforests on both the Amazon and Congo. (3)

Oceans loose their ability to absorb carbon dioxide as they heat (warm water absorbs less CO2) (2)

and as flora and fauna are removed (from whales to sea grass) and from bottom trawling and mining which release previously absorbed CO2. (4)

To an extended protection of the oceans already exists via the 30 by 30 Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) where signatories agreed to protect and enhance the biodiversity of 30% of land and sea by 2030. (5) This will hopefully be further extended to include international waters that lie outside those waters controlled by individual nations with the High Seas Treaty. (6)

(1) https://news.mongabay.com/short-article/2025/06/climate-strikes-the-amazon-undermining-protection-efforts/

(2) https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2025/09/04/the-ocean-carbon-sink-is-ailing/

(3) https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/nov/05/uk-opts-out-of-flagship-fund-to-protect-amazon-and-other-threatened-tropical-forests

(4) https://www.southampton.ac.uk/publicpolicy/CFloor.page

(5) https://for-the-ocean.org/event/cop30/

(6) https://highseasalliance.org/treaty-negotiations/

Counting on … 186

13th November 2025

Here in the UK whilst the Labour Party in its last manifesto promised ‘no new oil and gas’ there is still uncertainty as to how this is to be implemented. Exploration licences for oil fields such as Rosebank and Jackdaw had already been issued. The former to Equinor (Norwegian) and Ithaca (Israeli), and the latter to Shell. However before any oil and gas can be extracted a development license is needed. The development license issued for Rosebank was challenged in court as it took into account only scope 1 and 2 emissions and not scope 3 emissions – these being the emissions released when the oil and gas are used and which are clearly far greater than scope 1 and 2 being those related to the extraction of the fuels.

Equinor and Ithaca have submitted a revised application but as yet we don’t know whether or not the UK government will approve this. If the licence is approved, the subsequent greenhouse gas emissions would significantly undermine the UK’s net zero carbon budget.

For more information and to sign a petition and/ or write to Kier Starmer – https://www.stopcambo.org.uk/

Counting on … 185

12th November 2025

Cutting methane emissions is clearly a quick and important way of reducing the short term damaging effect of greenhouse gas emissions, but unless emissions from fossil fuels are also tackled, the climate crisis will only increase. National governments and fossil fuel companies need to legislate and implement (respectively) plans to end fossil fuel production. Yet unbelievably across the world countries are still planning to further expand fossil fuel production!

“The increases in fossil fuel production estimated under the government plans and projections pathways would lead to global production levels in 2030 that are 500%, 31%, and 92% higher for coal, oil, and gas, respectively, than the median 1.5ºC-consistent pathway.” (1)

The International Energy Agency itself reported in 2021 that there was no need for new developments: sufficient oil and gas production is already in place to meet global needs as the world transitions to renewable energy. (2)

Clearly this is an issue that needs to be addressed during COP30.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/sep/22/fossil-fuels-coal-gas-oil-extraction-climate-goals-beyond-reach?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Counting on … 184

11th November 2025

CO2 is the main GHG but methane is another, particularly potent, GHG. Methane doesn’t last as long in the atmosphere (ten to twelve years compared with hundreds or even thousands of years for carbon dioxide) but its warming effect is greater than that of carbon dioxide – as much as 80% more. (1)

40% of methane emissions are natural; 60% are manmade. Methane levels are now two-and-a-half times greater than pre-industrial levels.

Methane levels are still rising but clearly if emissions were curtailed it would help address the short term impact of climate change and rising temperatures. Frustratingly the IEA reports that “around 40% of today’s methane emissions from fossil fuels could be avoided at no net cost” (2) Methane emissions from fossil fuels can be reduced by reducing flaring and venting and by curtailing leaks! NB Natural gas is 80-95% methane.

To date methane emissions reduction has been via voluntary pledges, which are not tackling the problem. This is something that needs to be addressed during COP30. “ Durwood Zaelke, the president of the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development, said countries must sign a new global agreement on methane rather than sticking with the non-binding pledge. “With emissions still high, the voluntary pledge is clearly not enough to keep us from passing the fast-approaching tipping points,” he said. “We need a more muscular binding methane agreement.” (3)

https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/carbon-management-and-fossil-fuels/methane-emissions_en

(2) https://www.iea.org/reports/global-methane-tracker-2024/key-findings

(3) https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/nov/10/rich-countries-have-lost-enthusiasm-for-tackling-climate-crisis-says-cop30-chief?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Counting on … 183

10th November 2025

COP30 starts this week in Belém, Brazil. Global greenhouse gas emissions are continuing to rise as are global temperatures. The real hope is the all the parties will agree to transition rapidly away from fossil fuels – fossil fuels are the single biggest cause of greenhouse gas emissions. Unless they are eliminated, there is no way we can curb, let alone rein in, rising global temperatures and all that that will do to destroy the ecosystems in which we rely.

The main greenhouse gas, and one most easily measured, is carbon dioxide. Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere keeps in heat. Without some CO2 in the atmosphere our planet would be very cold.

CO2 levels in the atmosphere (measured in parts per million) have varied throughout geological time. This graph (1) shows atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere over the last 800,000 years (red line). CO2 levels were lower during the ice ages, and higher during the warmer interglacial periods. During this entire era, CI2 levels never exceeded 300 PPM until the modern era. The graphic also shows the differences global temperatures above and below the mean – the temperature anomaly.

There is a clear correlation between CO2 levels and temperature fluctuations. But more significantly the graph shows how rapidly both CO2 levels and temperatures are rising. It is a rate of change that is not due to natural deviations but to the impact of human activity.

(1) – https://theconversation.com/the-three-minute-story-of-800-000-years-of-climate-change-with-a-sting-in-the-tail-73368

Counting on … 182

7th November 2025

The Eat-Lancet Commission reports that report, currently the “wealthiest 30% of people drive more than 70% of food-related environmental impacts” (1) but this is not the only way that wealth and food produce inequalities. Lack of money means many people go hungry and many others cannot afford a healthy diet.

Here in the UK the Food Foundation’s research showed that 14% of households experienced food insecurity in June 2024 affecting approximately 7.2 million adults. 18% of households with children experienced food insecurity in the same period affecting an estimated 2.7 million children. Their report, The Broken Plate, also noted that “many people in the UK lack the financial means to access decent food and that much of the food readily available and marketed to us is damaging our health and the planet.” (2)

Further they also highlighted that such inequalities affect not only the individual’s wellbeing but also that of their communities. “Food is a huge part of all of our lives, nourishing and fuelling us. It impacts our health, happiness and overall prosperity. But the current food system is holding our nation back. Because it is so difficult to eat healthily, poor diet is now the biggest risk for preventable disease, placing massive strain on our NHS.” (3)

Food, including food production and access to food, is a climate issue, a health issue, an economic issue as well as a justice issue.

(1) https://eatforum.org/update/eat-lancet-commission-warns-food-systems-breach-planetary-limits/

(2) https://foodfoundation.org.uk/publication/broken-plate-2025

(3) https://foodfoundation.org.uk/initiatives/nourishing-nation

Counting on … 181

6th November 2025

Bang on cue! Yesterday saw the launch of a new campaign – Bang on Some Beans – to encourage us to eat more beans and pulses in the best interests of our own health and for the health of the planet.

https://foodfoundation.org.uk/initiatives/bang-some-beans

The Guardian offers a selection of appetising recipes (although the quantities look as if they would feed many more than the recipes suggests).

https://www.theguardian.com/food/2025/nov/05/magic-beans-the-protein-rich-superfood-in-a-potful-of-top-chefs-recipes?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Another go to site for recipes is Hodmedod’s who are a British grown beans, pulses, grains etc. Their recipes include ones using bean flour – dried beans milled into flour are a great way to increase protein and fibre and reduce carbon hydrates and can be used in making cakes, biscuits, bread, pasta etc.

https://hodmedods.co.uk/blogs/recipes

Counting on … 180

5th November 2025

The Planetary Health Diet surely offers win win win solutions, tackling both the issues of climate change, of poor health, of social justice, and of the need for sustainable landuse.

Climate change – reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 17% (1)

Health – lowering risks of type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, cognitive decline, obesity and various cancers, saving around 15,000,000 premature deaths a year (2)

Land use – by reducing the demand for meat and dairy, more land would be released for both horticulture (fruit and vegetables) and for wildlife restoration. “Widespread adoption of the diet would require a two-thirds increase in fruit, vegetable and nut production and allow for a one-third reduction in livestock meat production, compared to 2020 levels” (3)

Social justice – switching more resources from producing meat and dairy to the production of fruit, vegetables and pulses etc, would produce enough food to feed the world’s projected population of 10 billion. Although at the same time, questions of distribution (can the food be accessed?), poverty (can people afford the food?) and food waste would also need to be addressed. (4)

Why then is this diet only followed by 1% of people?

Can we as individuals help by adopting the diet ourselves, by talking about it with friends and colleagues, promoting awareness through churches, health clubs etc, by writing to local councillors and MPS?

Useful links to share re diet and planetary health

https://youtu.be/iWHAE-mw7ao?si=XEJF0-0ciMlv10QW – This consumer-friendly video explores all the nuances of a healthy climate friendly diet and gives a clear summary

https://eatforum.org/campaign/our-cultures-our-meals-cooking-for-planetary-health/ – this web page had beautiful images of meals that match the PHD – most appetising – plus recipes here: https://eatforum.org/eat-lancet/recipes/

https://phys.org/news/2024-08-planetary-health-diet-emissions-environmental.pdf

(2) https://www.foodnavigator.com/Article/2025/10/06/eat-lancet-20-whats-changed/

(3) https://www.carbonbrief.org/eat-lancet-report-three-key-takeaways-on-climate-and-diet-change/

(4) https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/how-feed-10-billion-people

Counting on … 179

4th November 2025

Planetary Health Diet

The EAT-LancetCommission is a global, interdisciplinary group of world-leading researchers with expertise in nutrition, health, agriculture, sustainability, social justice, and policy – working together towards a healthy, sustainable, and just food system. (1) In 2019 this group’s research developed the Planetary Health Diet being a diet that is both healthier for us and for the planet. It is a dietary outline that can be adapted to suit different cultural traditions and different social contexts – in other words it is a diet that everyone could follow with out difficulty.

“The PHD is rich in plants: whole grains, fruits, vegetables, nuts, and legumes comprise a large proportion of foods consumed, with only moderate or small amounts of fish, dairy, and meat recommended.” (2)

This year their research was updated producing the 2025 EAT-Lancet Commission Report. This report demonstrates that the PHD could both bring the human behaviour back within safe planetary boundaries as well as cutting greenhouse gas emissions.

This 2025 report outlines eight areas where transformation can lead to positive outcomes. Protect and promote traditional healthy diets –

Create accessible and affordable food environments that increase demand for healthy diets
Implement sustainable production practices that store carbon, create habitat, and improve water quality and availability
Halt agricultural conversion of intact ecosystems
Reduce food loss and waste
Secure decent working conditions across the food system
Ensure meaningful voice and representation for food systems workers
Recognise and protect marginalised groups (3)

https://eatforum.org/eat-lancet

(2) https://eatforum.org/eat-lancet/the-planetary-health-diet/

(3) https://eatforum.org/update/eat-lancet-commission-warns-food-systems-breach-planetary-limits/