Counting On … – Page 9

Counting on 2026 … day 3

9th January

How do we protect and preserve fresh water supplies – part 4

As consumers we can use less water by reducing the amount we literally take from our taps, but we can also reduce the amount we consumer by reducing some of the things we buy. Everything we consume has a water footprint. Here again there is a strong argument for eating less meat and dairy and more nuts, seeds and pulses, and locally produced, in-season fruits and vegetables.

1kg of beef uses 15,415 litres of water, milk 1020 litres and vegetables an average of 322 litres. (1) Dried beans use 5053 litres , lentils 5874 litres and shelled walnuts 9280litres. (2) (NB a portion of beef will typically be twice the weight or more of a portion of beans or pulses).

Another significant item of consumption that can impact our water footprint, is clothing. Making clothes – growing cotton, manufacturing threads and dying the fabrics – uses a significant amount of water.

To produce a T-shirt can use 2000litres of water, a pair of jeans 11,000 litres, a pair of leather shoes 8000 litres. (3)

If we buy fewer items of clothes – buying items we know we like and they we know will last – rather than buying lots of new items which we may wear once and discard, we will make an impact on reducing water consumption and save money too! Clothes will last longer of we take care of them, mending and cleaning them as necessary. And if we no longer need or want them, we can give/ sell them as preloved items. Equally we can save water and money by ourselves buying preloved items.

Counting on 2026 … day 2

8th January

How do we protect and preserve fresh water supplies – part 3

Using less water!

This is something for businesses and farmers and domestic consumers to respond too – and feels particularly pertinent as decisions are made about AI and data centres generally (see tomorrow’s blog).

In the UK at our continued rate of water consumption there will be a daily shortfall of 5 billion litres (about a third of current consumption) by 2050. This takes into account the need to extract less water from rivers, aquifers etc where it negatively impacts the natural environment, a growing population, the need to cope with increasingly frequent droughts, the impact of climate change (eg changing rainfall patterns) and increased use by businesses. (1)

Per capita household water consumption in the UK is already falling, from an average of 169.53 litres per day in 2005/2006 to an average of 139.47 litres in 2023/2024. (2) However there is clearly a need for consumption levels to fall further. A survey across Europe in 2020 varied daily domestic consumption varied from 300 litres in Switzerland to 100 litres in Belgium and even less in Estonia and Slovakia. (3) In some instances the difference maybe due to a lower volume toilet flush, or the frequency and duration and rate of flow of showers, or the frequency of use and water efficiency of appliances such as washing machines.

Websites with water saving tips

How to save water

https://friendsoftheearth.uk/sustainable-living/13-best-ways-save-water

This earlier blog is about saving and reusing grey water around the house – https://greentau.org/2025/07/10/counting-on-day-106-3/

And this one about showering less and more efficiently – https://greentau.org/2025/02/13/counting-on-day-31-3/

Counting on … day 1

7th January 2026

How do we protect and preserve fresh water supplies – part 2

Land use changes, especially things such as deforestation and urbanisation, have aggravated the problem –

“Deforestation, agriculture, and urban expansion have greatly changed the way land stores and moves water. When forests are cleared or soils are sealed under concrete, they lose their ability to hold green water — the moisture that plants rely on. This weakens local rainfall, increases runoff, and can intensify both floods and droughts. Changes to land systems also affect regional weather patterns, such as monsoons, and create feedback loops that further influence the climate.” (1)

Reducing or indeed eliminating such land use changes is clearly beneficial for the wellbeing of the planet. We can go further by reversing the changes by both protecting and increasing land uses that capture and store – eg through reforestation, restoring peatlands and wetlands, re-wriggling rivers (ie allowing them to flow freely and more slowly across a greater expanse of the flood plain, re-establishing water meadows, limiting the extraction of water to protect lakes and aquifers etc.

These nature based solutions not only protect supplies of fresh water, they also protect and enhance biodiversity and reduce the risk of flooding, creating a better environment for us to enjoy.

(1) https://www.planetaryhealthcheck.org/boundary/freshwater-change/

Counting on … day 208

19th December 2025

What should we be doing? – 1

Reviewing and redesigning the way we use fresh water so as to conserve and protect this precious resource for the benefit of all.

“Human use of water, especially for agriculture, is [a] major driver of freshwater change. Irrigation alone accounts for about 70% of all freshwater withdrawals, and around 90% of the water that is consumed and not returned to the source. Large-scale river diversions, dams, and groundwater pumping have dramatically altered the flow and storage of blue water, lowering water levels in rivers, lakes, and aquifers and degrading aquatic habitats.” (1)

Where dams are placed and how the flow of water downstream is controlled is very important if fair access to water is to be ensured. One of the main factors causing Iran to be so short of water and why in parts of Tehran there is a real risk of taps literally running dry. Nations upstream of Iran have set up dams and extract so much water, that downstream rivers such as the Tigris have severely reduced flow.

How water is used for agriculture also needs to be controlled and consideration given as to which crops are grown, and whether there are more water efficient plant varieties and methods of farming.

The Aral Sea has already been destroyed by agricultural water extraction (mainly for cotton which is a very thirsty crop – 15,000 tonnes of irrigation water per hectare) and now the Caspian Sea is similarly under threat.

Consideration also needs to be given to the place of livestock farming. Globally 30–40% of fresh water is used to provide 16% of the food obtained as meat, eggs, and dairy products – the vast majority of this is water used in growing food crops for the animals.

All foods have a fresh water footprint. The size will vary with location. Strawberries grown for example in Spain will have a higher water footprint than those grown in the cooler climes of the UK. 70% of Spanish strawberries are grown in the Doñana region where the extraction of water is depleting the water in the region’s biodiverse wetlands.

Governments and farmers and scientists need to work together to ensure against the over-extraction of water. Different farming methods and different crops etc that use less water should be utilised.

As customers we too can contribute by shaping our diets around foods with lower water footprints.

You can find more information online: eg-

https://www.bbcgoodfood.com/howto/guide/your-diet-contributing-water-scarcity

Or look at the Planetary Health Diet. Its researchers estimate that following this optimised diet produces a lower water footprint of up to 30%.

https://www.bbcgoodfood.com/health/special-diets/what-is-the-planetary-health-diet

The Planetary Health Diet

(1) https://www.planetaryhealthcheck.org/boundary/freshwater-change/

Counting on … day 207

18th December 2025

How do we see the impact of exceeding the planetary boundaries for fresh water?

“Climate change has become the main global driver of freshwater disruption. A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture and changes how and where rain falls, leading to more intense floods in some regions and severe droughts in others. These shifts are transforming long-established rainfall and river patterns, creating new and unpredictable hydrological conditions that put pressure on both ecosystems and human societies.” (1)

A disruption in rainfall patterns can mean either more or less rain than usual, or more rainfall but less often so that rainfall is more intense. This can lead to the drying out of wetlands, the lowering of lake and river levels and the disruption of the ecosystems those water features supported. In the Amazon basin we are seeing river levels drop significantly impacting local communities and their livelihoods and destabilisation of the rainforest such that trees, plants and creatures are lost.

Disruption means loss of soil moisture. Not only does this impact plant growth and thus a whole food chains, it also makes landscapes more vulnerable to droughts and wildfires. The UK saw a record number of wildfires this year.

Excessive amounts of rainfall over a prolonged period, or concentrated into a short time frame, causes extreme flooding that disrupts habitats, destroys infrastructure, displaces people, erodes soils and causes devastating landslides. We have seen many examples of this in the recent Asian super typhoons.

Disruption to normal rainfall patterns leads to water scarcity. A lack of rain depletes water supplies, whilst infrequent intense rainfall runs quickly of the land, again failing to restore water stocks in reservoirs and rivers. Warmer winters diminishes the replenishment of glaciers, and increase the rate at which they melt. Together this reduces the flow of water into rivers during summer periods aggravating water scarcity. Both in Iran and in South Africa, whole communities are face a complete lack of drinking water as droughts combine with atypical rainfall patterns.

https://www.planetaryhealthcheck.org/boundary/freshwater-change/

Counting on … day 206

17th December 2025

Only 2.5% of the Earth’s water is fresh water – the rest is salt water found in the seas and oceans.

Fresh water exists in two forms, blue water and green water.

Blue water is the water that is in rivers, lakes , underground aquifers and as frozen water in glaciers and ice sheets. Amazingly about 60% of blue water is locked away as ice.

Green water is the water stored in the soil and drawn up by plants.

Every year some 500,000km3 of water evaporates from the surface of the oceans, with 450,000km3 returning as precipitation directly back into the ocean(usually within a period of about 9 days) and 50,000km3 falling on land.

“The highest rate of evaporation from the oceans occurs in winter for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The location of greatest evaporation is found on the east coasts of continents. This is due primarily to winter storms that move off the east coasts of continents, which tend to have strong winds. These winds help carry water vapor away from its source, thereby allowing more evaporation to take place.

“Another factor is the warm ocean currents that move pole-ward along the east coasts of continents. The cold winter-time air masses that move over the water allow for large differences in air and sea temperatures, so evaporation is also large. When these differences in air and sea temperatures are then combined with strong winds, it makes evaporation in these regions very efficient.” (1)

Water molecules from the ocean would struggle to reach the inner parts of the continents. Here precipitation is dependent on moisture that has been released by plants through evaporation, forming clouds etc. Plants provide about 70,000km3 of such precipitation. Vegetation cover is key to ensuring that precipitation spreads right across continents.

The other key source of water for inland areas is from melting snow and ice: high mountain regions capture precipitation and then release it throughout the year as meltwater-fed rivers. Water molecules that are exist within these frozen states may take a thousand years to complete the journey from precipitation to their return to the ocean! This is also highlights as we loose glaciers because of global warming, they will be hard to replace.

https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/max-what-cycle

Counting on … day 205

16th December

Fresh water is essential for life, but are we using it wisely?

“A new analysis of freshwater resources across the globe shows that human activity has pushed variation in the planet’s freshwater cycle well outside of its pre-industrial range. The study shows that the updated planetary boundary for freshwater change was surpassed by the mid-twentieth century. In other words, for the past century, humans have been pushing the Earth’s freshwater system far beyond the stable conditions that prevailed before industrialisation.” (1)

We are seeing more extreme wet and more extreme dry conditions across the globe. Ingo Fetzer at the Stockholm Resilience Centre notes: “Water extremes, such as droughts and flooding, can have significant impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity that function are essential for human societies. However, human activities, including agriculture, urbanisation, and climate change, influence the water cycle and exacerbate extreme events. By understanding and mitigating these factors, we can work to protect and preserve our planet’s vital water resources and maintain biodiversity.” (1)

https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/research-stories/2024-03-06-freshwater-planetary-boundary-has-been-crossed-since-the-mid-twentieth-century.html

Counting on … day 204

15th December 2025

What is AMOC?

AMOC, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, is a system of ocean currents that help distribute warm water around the world. (1)

I wrote about this last month – https://greentau.org/2025/11/18/counting-on-189/ – but want to recommend Professor Tim Lenton’s address at the National Emergency Briefing which illustrates vividly the impact if AMOC fails: https://youtu.be/tmd6MDiJmQU?si=RcnuJIDqMeJHirD5

Research, which is still on going, suggests that the topping point which will make the collapse of AMOC inevitable could be passed in the next few decades – but the resulting collapse of the system might take another 50-100 years to happen. Even keeping the global temperature rise to the 1.5C Paris target is now predicted to carry a 10-25% risk of reaching this tipping point before the end of the century. It is a risk we cannot afford to take given the impact it will have on the viability of human life – even if that will not effect us now, it will effect future generations, our children and our children’s children. (2)

https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/research/climate-science/met-office-hadley-centre/amoc-factsheet-update-2025-v3.pdf

(2) https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/aug/28/collapse-critical-atlantic-current-amoc-no-longer-low-likelihood-study?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

And also https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/23/we-dont-know-where-the-tipping-point-is-climate-expert-on-potential-collapse-of-atlantic-circulation?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Counting on … day 203

12th December 2025

Can the acidification of the oceans be reversed? This from Biology Insights

“Reversing ocean acidification involves both natural and engineered approaches. The Earth has self-regulating mechanisms, such as the dissolution of calcium carbonate sediments on the ocean floor and the weathering of rocks on land. These processes release alkaline materials that neutralise acidity, but they operate over thousands of years and are too slow to counteract the current rapid changes.

“Scientists are exploring geoengineering techniques to accelerate this process. One proposal is ocean alkalinity enhancement, which adds alkaline substances like ground olivine or lime to seawater to increase its pH. This method seeks to speed up the natural weathering process to neutralise excess acidity.

“Other methods are more technologically intensive, such as electrochemical approaches that remove acidity directly from seawater. These systems would use electricity to manage ions and reduce acidity, but they face challenges of scale, cost, and energy requirements. The potential for unintended ecological side effects from these engineered solutions is not yet fully understood.” (1)

It is hard to imagine how either the geo engineering or the electrochemical solutions can work at scale. Ditto for proposals that carbon dioxide could be removed from the oceans and stored underground using carbon capture technology.

More promising are projects that focus on planting seaweeds such as kelp and sea grass which as they grow absorb carbon dioxide from the water. (2) At the same time such projects improve marine biodiversity, and indeed are often established as part of Marine Protected Areas. These project are often simply restoring ecosystems that have been degraded by human exploitation. Nevertheless even plants such as seagrass can struggle as temperatures rise and as ecosystems become more unstable. (3)

Therefore the most important way of protecting our oceans is to to reduce significantly and at speed the amount of carbon dioxide that we emit.

(3) https://www.mccip.org.uk/sites/default/files/2021-07/mccip-seagrass.pdf

Counting on … day 202

11th December 2025

What is a tipping point?

From the Met Office “In the context of climate science, a tipping point refers to a critical threshold in the earth’s system or related processes which, if passed, can cause sudden, dramatic or even irreversible changes to some of the earth’s largest systems, such as the Antarctic ice sheet or the Amazon rainforest.” (1)

And from the Natural History Museum: “Large areas of the world could soon become unrecognisable if global temperatures continue to rise. From the loss of coral reefs to the shutdown of major ocean currents, shifts in Earth’s climate and ecosystems will have untold consequences for billions of people across the world.” (2)

Tim Lennon, head of the Global Systems Institute at Exeter University p, spoke very eloquently on this issue at the recent National Emergency Briefing. You can see a recording here – https://youtu.be/tmd6MDiJmQU?si=goRIfzf8AhiriESi

Tipping points also work in the opposite direction. Just last year the last coal fired power station closed ahead of schedule as policies that encouraged the phasing out of coal reached that critical tipping point. Similar tipping points can also be seen in the cost fall and expansion of wind farms, solars panels and electric vehicles.