Category: Counting On …

Reflections and actions during COP26 and going on

Counting on 2026 …. Day 24

18th February 

Yesterday was Shrove Tuesday when in the past people confessed their sins and were shriven so that they could start Lent free of the burden of guilt. 

If in observing Lent, we are following the example of Jesus who prepared for his mission in sharing the gospel by spending 40 days of prayer and fasting in the wilderness, what can the next 7 weeks offer us?

In the wilderness Jesus was totally reliant for his survival on what God could give him and what the wilderness – ie nature – could give him. Through this experience he would have been very close relationship with both God and nature. So is that, I wonder, what we should be aiming for during Lent? A chance to deepen our understanding of, relationship with and reliance on, God and nature?

Counting on 2026 …. Day 23

17th February 

The main cause of climate change is the increase in carbon dioxide emissions – and it is an increase caused by human activities. The following chart shows the annual levels of CO2 emissions measured in parts per million. 350 ppm is the safe planetary boundary.  (1)

The second chart shows the correlation between rising levels of CO2 emissions and global temperatures. (2) 

Once released into the atmosphere,  carbon dioxide remains there for centuries. So it is important to understand not just how much we emit each year, but also how much has already accumulated in the atmosphere and to which we are now adding. The chart below comes  from an article produced by Our 

World in Data. (3) 

Whilst climate deniers may point to periods on the past when temperatures in the UK during the past two thousand years have been higher than average, there has been no period during human history when global temperatures have risen to the levels now seen and nor when carbon emissions HVO been at current levels. We have very clearly passed the safe planetary boundary vis a vis carbon dioxide emissions.

  1. https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/global.html
  2. https://www.climate.gov/media/13840
  3. https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions

Counting on 2026 …. Day 22

16th February 

Of the seven planetary boundaries where we have passed from the safe zone into the unsustainable zone, the last I am writing about is climate change which is subdivided into CO2 concentration and radioactive forcing.

Radioactive forcing is a scientific concept which measures the imbalance between incoming and outgoing energy in Earth’s climate system. When energy from the sun reaches Earth, some reflects back to space while some gets absorbed. The difference between these two creates what scientists call radiative forcing, expressed in watts per square meter (W m⁻²). (1)

Different gases and particles suspended in the atmosphere (aerosols) plus the reflective capacity of the land/ sea surface contribute to this. Of all the gases in the atmosphere carbon dioxide has the greatest impact – absorbing energy (heat) whilst of aerosols sulphur dioxide has the biggest impact reflecting  energy/ heat back out of the atmosphere. Thus the dirty smoke from coal power stations and from diesel shipping does in fact cool the planet, and as these sources of air pollution are reduced, there is an ironic increase in temperatures. Sulphur dioxide forms of smog which is harmful to health, often causing premature deaths (pictures of Delhi with obscured views of the city illustrate the density of these particles). (2)

“Scientists have proposed a PB for total anthropogenic radiative forcing at +1.0 W/m², relative to pre-industrial levels. This threshold is based on the climate system’s sensitivity to greenhouse gas forcing, observed responses of polar ice sheets to warming, and growing evidence of climate instability at forcing levels above +1.5 W/m². Exceeding this boundary increases the risk of irreversible climate impacts and long-term system feedback loops.” (3)

We exceeded this safe point in 1986.

  1.   https://climatechange.academy/introduction-to-climate-change/radiative-forcing-explained-climate-change/

(2) https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg4d9kq2eno

(3) https://www.planetaryhealthcheck.org/boundary/climate-change/

Counting on 2026 …. Day 21

6th February 

In response to the government’s national security report ‘Global biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and national security’ (1)  Sustain responded with its reading of the urgency of the situation, making the following recommendations:-

“The Government must now look to planning, nature recovery and food and farming policy to mutually support each other to deliver the wholescale changes in diets and food production that security experts recommend. Farming policy must prioritise global ecosystem recovery, and nature and climate policy include measures to grow more foods that boost our resilience and aren’t heavily reliant on imports. Immediate actions include:

  • Halting any further expansion of intensive livestock production
  • Investing in projects like Bridging the Gap, and schemes like Welsh Veg in Schools, to unlock profitable supply chains that increase the production and consumption of organic fruit, vegetables and legumes
  • A horticulture investment strategy that boosts commercial production of UK vegetables, beans, pulses, legumes and nuts, as well as increasing the UK market for these products 
  • Ending the exploitative practices of large agri-food corporations, and give farmers more power to set prices and market conditions
  • Funding farmer cooperatives, networks, and mentoring schemes to scale agroecological farming through knowledge sharing, pooling resources and building collective market power “ (2)

It is frustrating that there are so many clear solutions to the crisis we face, but so little willingness on the part of the Government to enact the policies and legislation that would enable these changes to be made – because market forces won’t do this alone and many people whether farmers, retailers or consumers are trapped by unrestrained market forces.  

  1. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/united-kingdom-food-security-report-2024/united-kingdom-food-security-report-2024-introduction

(2) https://www.sustainweb.org/news/jan26-national-security-risk-report/

Counting on 2026 …. Day 20

5th February 

Sustain’s report (released November 2025), Bridging the Gap: How to fix the food system for everyone, calls for the creation of “just, healthy and sustainable UK food system will require system-wide change alongside strong leadership. Farming of nutritious food with lower inputs, lower greenhouse gas emissions, which restore nature and support decent livelihoods for a diversity of growers must become the mainstream to build nutritional security and domestic resilience against global shocks. Our policy recommendations include ways to significantly increase domestic fruit and veg production in the UK7 and, with this, more jobs (up to 80 jobs per thousand tonnes produced), benefiting local communities.9

“Alongside this we need to double the consumption of fruit, veg and pulses to improve people’s health while securing a market for growers, supporting the transition to climate and nature friendly farming. For this triple bottom line to be possible, good food must be available and affordable in local retail settings and across our schools and hospitals, sourced through ethical, value-based supply chains that provide growers with better and more reliable incomes than what they currently experience via supermarket supply chains.11 

“If we are to produce food that is good for people and for the planet, and accessible to everyone regardless of their income, the Government must actively support climate and nature friendly horticulture and lead by example on how our food is bought and sold.” (1)

The report lists three clear policy recommendations:- 

1. Fix the supply – Boost British fruit, veg and pulse production

• Introduce cross-departmental horticulture strategies across the nations to support green growth and boost production and consumption of fruit, vegetables and pulses

* Support small-scale and organic farmers through grants, better land access, and training programmes

2. Fix the missing middle – Ensure fair prices and invest in infrastructure

•Invest in local food infrastructure like food hubs, processing and packing facilities (particularly for legumes), and distribution centres to help smaller local producers get produce to market.

•Strengthen supply chain fairness to enforce fair dealing across more of the supply chain.

3. Fix the access – Enable everyone to eat good food

• Use the state’s £5 billion of public food procurement from schools and hospitals to create stable markets for organic and locally produced produce. This will deliver on the Labour Government election manifesto commitment to ensure 50% of publicly procured food is local or to a higher environmental standard.

  • Run pilots and roll-out schemes to make healthy food more affordable for low-income households and reduce NHS spending, such as vouchers and ‘fruit and veg on prescription’. (1)

The report details 9 different pilot schemes that have been running for the last two years, and the results show clear win-win outcomes for health, climate and  environment, local economies, and food security.

Will the government take on these recommendations? Will they be supported by the farming industry, by retailers and by consumers? 

  1. https://www.sustainweb.org/assets/bridging-the-gap-how-to-fix-the-food-system-for-everyone-1764673053.pdf

Counting on 2026 … day 19

4th February 

To return to yesterday’s astounding statistic that the UK is just 62% self sufficient for all foods, and when looking at indigenous foods (ie those that can be grown in the UK) we are disappointingly only 75% self sufficient. And for fresh fruit we are about 15% self sufficient. 

It would seem that all too often imported fruit and vegetables are cheaper – perhaps coming from countries with lower wages or countries like Spain that use cheap seasonal labour from North Africa. (This is in itself a justice issue for these seasonal workers are often abused by their their employers – https://www.ethicalconsumer.org/ethicalcampaigns/agricultural-workers-rights-almeria). 

Do we need to encourage more horticulture in the UK and encourage consumers to buy UK produce? Maybe we need a “Buy British” advertising campaign as we did in the past with eggs.

Equally the government and local authorities could ensure that the Public Food Procurement sector does more to buy locally – encompassing buying British rather than imported produce, and buying from local (often small and medium sized) producers.

However this is not a simple straightforward problem to solve. If buying British means paying a higher price for fruit and vegetables, then the poorer sectors of our society need to receive a higher income – either through improved benefits and/ or improved pay. The proliferation of food banks already shows us that we are failing as a society – and therefore being failed by our government – to ensure everyone has enough money to eat well.

Wages also feed in as a cost factor for the producers of fruit and vegetables. Growing and harvesting is both labour intensive and seasonal. Increased wage costs (due to inflationary pressures and NI costs etc) are eating away at profit margins. This has also been compounded by Brexit which has reduced the supply of seasonal workers from Europe and sometimes crops have gone unharvested severely denting the viability of businesses. We need a better system of ensuring that everyone receives a fair wage as the bedrock of our economy.

The dominance of the supply chain by big supermarkets also needs to be reviewed. Supermarkets dominate the market giving them considerable leverage over prices paid to the producers. Whilst this does drive down costs on some items, it does so at the expense of the producers. A report from 2022 by the Sustainable Farming Campaign highlights the very small profit margin received by food producers as opposed to the profits made elsewhere in the supply chain: “For 1kg of apples purchased in a supermarket (about 6 apples), the apple grower has costs of 76p, yet receives in profit just 1% (3 pence) of a selling price of £2.20”. The same report observed that organic apples sold not by a supermarket but by a not-for profit hub, received : “1kg of organic apples purchased gives the organic apple grower three times -3% (10 pence) of the selling price of £4.00 with costs of 175p.” Ie a 0.06% profit margin as opposed to 0.04%. (1)

Another major costs for the producers of fruit and vegetables is energy. Rising energy prices have, for example, particularly affected crops grow under glass. In part this is because of the UK’s past heavy reliance on fossil fuels and the impact of the war in Ukraine. A concerted shift to renewable energy would bring down energy costs but in terms of a just transition, should grants be made available to enable fruit and vegetable growers to invest in solar panels? At the same time there needs to be urgent investment in the capacity of the grid.

Support  with investment in new technologies and infrastructure would also encourage an expansion of UK based production. Relatively speaking, horticulture doesn’t need lots of land vis a vis other crops or livestock,  but does need more infrastructure per hectare. 

Another factor to be considered in terms of promoting  UK grown fruit and vegetables is the growing insecurity of the supply of imported produce. Spain, Italy and North Africa from where much of our imported fruit and vegetables come, are countries that are increasingly the impacts of change – droughts  floods etc – and which have already resulted in reduced harvests. 

  1. https://www.sustainweb.org/news/nov22-unpicking-food-prices-new/

Background reading

 – https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/POST-PN-0707/POST-PN-0707.pdf

Counting on 2026 … day 17

2nd February 

Food security is a pertinent issue. A recent Government report,  Nature security assessment on global biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and national security, investigates “how global biodiversity loss and the collapse of critical ecosystems could affect the UK’s resilience, security and prosperity.” (1) 

At the top of the list of events the poses a high risk for the UK is global ecosystem breakdown: ie the ecosystems on which we depend for fresh water, clean air and food, and for predictable weather patterns, and which protect us from diseases, would cease to function. 

Without major interventions, the report states that this is a highly likely outcome based on current trends. 

Not only would this impact us locally, the UK would also be impacted by the knock on effects of systems collapse in other countries leading to increased competition for limited resources such as food and water, greater risk of global pandemics,  an increase in both armed conflict and mass migration. Partial system collapse is likely by 2030 and a global collapse as early as 2050. 

In a repeat of what has been said so widely, measures needed to reduce the likelihood of global ecosystem collapse include:-

  • Protecting 30% of global land and ocean by 2030 (now just four years away)
  • 30% of global nature to be under rest by 2030
  • Mobilising finance to close the funding gap of $700bn
  • Reducing risks from pesticide usage by 50% by 2050
  • Eliminating or reforming harmful subsidies by $500bn by 2050
  • Meeting the 1.5C Paris climate agreement target

So why aren’t we – whether as individuals, as industries or as the government – a) doing more to curtail activities that are driving this ecological breakdown, and b) doing more to increase national and global resilience?

  1. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/nature-security-assessment-on-global-biodiversity-loss-ecosystem-collapse-and-national-security?internal=true

Counting on 2026 … day 16

30th January 

This last week the radio programme Farming Today has been reporting on the difficulties livestock farmers have been facing with insufficient supplies of winter feed. Last year’s hot dry summer reduced crop yields meaning there has been a shortage of things such as hay, silage, maize, sunflower seeds, rape seed etc. Farmers have had to buy in extra feed including more imported soya beans. The Agricultural Industries Confederation (AIC) said that “the UK needs a national protein strategy to safeguard feed security because that impacts food security.” 

This bemuses me. Would it not be more logical, if we are wanting to increase national protein security, to focus on growing more plant based proteins that can be fed directly to humans rather than feeding us indirectly via livestock? Gaining our protein needs from livestock rather than plants is much more inefficient in the use of land, water, fertiliser etc and generates far more pollution costs too.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m002q29g
https://www.agindustries.org.uk/resource/aic-on-bbc-farming-today-programme-uk-feed-security.html

Counting on 2026 … day 15

28th January 

Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework is a global agreement, dating from 2022seeks to halt and reverse biodiversity loss – ie restoring the integrity of biodiversity. Signatories, which includes the UK, have undertaken to restore 30% of the biodiversity by 2030 – both land based and marine. (1)

In December 2025 the government published its policy paper, The Environmental Improvement Plan (2025) and the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. (2) This is intended as a ‘roadmap’ first restoring nature, improving environmental quality, creating a circular economy, protecting environmental security and improving access to nature. However it is crunched in terms of minimise and enable and encourage with no measurable targets and no details as to the who and the how and the where.

More useful is the report from the Wild Life Trusts. It starts critically: “Despite often being a key player in the international stage …the UK has not backed this up with implementation at home. The UK’s international environmental leadership threatens to be undermined by the fact that the UK Government is on track to meet only four of its forth individual domestic environmental targets and remains one of the most nature depleted countries on the planet.” But it also offers positive advice: “Space in the UK is finite and there are many competing aspirations for how our land and seas should be used. A national strategic spatial approach to planning the use of both is needed to reduce and avoid conflict. This approach needs to be fully cross departmental to ensure policies for,planning, transport, energy, food and nature are all aligned.” This plan needs to show “how and where 30%of the land will be effectively conserved and restored by 2030…”

The report also reveals some shocking analysis: “…analysis shows that on,y 3.1% of land in ZD gland is effectively protected and managed for nature, whilst a maximum of 8% of English seas could be said to be protected for nature.” It goes on to recommend: “Landscape-scale habitat creation is needed, linked by corridors and stepping stones of wild places throughout our cities and countryside. Practices that damage nature must be minimised to enable nature to recover.” (3)

I’m surprised that in all these discussions about route maps to increase biodiversity and the need to allocate more space for nature, that instigating a switch to largely plant based diets doesn’t feature. We cannot maintain existing diets, existing farming practices and restore nature!

  1. https://www.cbd.int/gbf
  2. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-environmental-improvement-plan-2025-and-the-kunming-montreal-global-biodiversity-framework
  3. https://www.wildlifetrusts.org/sites/default/files/2024-09/UK and Global Biodiversity Framework – The Wildlife Trusts 2024.pdf

Counting on 2026 … day 14

27th January

“Biosphere Integrity refers to the capacity of ecosystems across the planet to support life and maintain the overall health and stability of the Earth system. This depends on the health, diversity, and interactions of the organisms that make up these ecosystems.” (1) 

This is a safety boundary that we – because of human activity – have passed. We are living in the danger zone that means crises are inevitable. We experience this through rapidly declining numbers of pollinators (essential for growing crops); increasing soil infertility; declining ability of the environment to absorb carbon dioxide; declining ability of ecosystems to absorb rain so limiting flooding; loss of species removing opportunities to benefit from them for food, medicines, building materials etc; increasing loss of green and blue spaces that maintain our physical and mental wellbeing. 

Human activities that are causing the loss of biodiversity integrity include:-

  • Deforestation 
  • Changing land uses including  the expansion of urban structures 
  • Increased intensification of agricultural 
  • Expansion of agricultural land use
  • Industrialised fishing
  • Expansion of mining activities including deep sea mining
  • Expansion of industrial processes increasing pollution
  • Expansion of activities producing greenhouse gases – eg use of fossil fuels and livestock farming
  • Increased production of novel entities and the spread of invasive, non-indigenous species
  1. https://www.planetaryhealthcheck.org/boundary/change-in-biosphere-integrity/

Global risk map of the Change in Biosphere Integrity, based on the functional integrity (HANPP) control variable. Transgression is based on the HANPP control variable. All values shown on the map refer to the year 2010. Based on data from Kastner et al. 2022.

Most boundary transgressions occur in large, continuous regions with high land-use intensity. In contrast, areas in regions without transgressions, such as the Amazon, the Congo Basin, and boreal forests, are primarily natural or semi-natural.