Category: Counting On …

Reflections and actions during COP26 and going on

Counting on … day 70

20th March 2024

The geological history of oil and gas. 

“The formation of oil takes a significant amount of time with oil beginning to form millions of years ago. 70% of oil deposits existing today were formed in the Mesozoic age (252 to 66 million years ago), 20% were formed in the Cenozoic age (65 million years ago), and only 10% were formed in the Paleozoic age (541 to 252 million years ago). This is likely because the Mesozoic age was marked by a tropical climate, with large amounts of plankton in the ocean.

“The formation of oil begins in warm, shallow oceans that were present on the Earth millions of years ago. In these oceans, extremely small dead organic matter – classified as plankton – falls to the floor of the ocean. This plankton consists of animals, called zooplankton, or plants, called phytoplankton. This material then lands on the ocean floor and mixes with inorganic material that enters the ocean by rivers. It is this sediment on the ocean floor that then forms oil over many years”.

  1. The dead plankton, plus algae and bacteria form an organic rich mud.
  2. If the mud remains in an anoxic environment  – lacking in oxygen such as stagnant water – it does not decompose and so retains its carbon content. 
  3. This anoxic environment becomes embedded by subsequent layers of mud, compressing the carbon rich  layer into an organic shale. 
  4. Overtime the shale sinks as more layers are added. At a depth of 2 to 4km the temperatures from the earth’s core plus the increased pressure converts the organic shale to oil shale.
  5. If the temperatures at this depth are between 90 and 160C this oil shale is transformed into oil and natural gas. This will either seep upwards being lighter than water, or maybe sealed in by subsequent layers of impervious rock.

(https://energyeducation.ca/encyclopedia/Oil_formation)

Again it is mind blowing to reflect that these oil and gas deposits that took millions of years in the making, are now being burnt at an annual rate of 6.6 billion tonnes, such that we have 47 years of reserves remaining – should we be foolish enough to want to burn them.(https://www.worldometers.info/oil/) 

We should keep in mind that the IEA warns that a cannot risk developing and burning new oil and gas reserves without exceeding the 1.5C global warming limit.

Counting on … day 69

19th March 2024

The Carboniferous era began around 359 million years ago and lasted some 60 million years. It was an era in which life, land and marine, was well established – verdant swamps and forests. Raised oxygen levels in the atmosphere encouraged the evolutionary expansion of land and marine fauna. It is also known as the Age of the Amphibians as these dominated the  environment – later eras saw the evolutionary journey onto mammals. This abundance of plant and animal life as they decayed became coal beds, often forming in shallow seas and swampy areas of the landscape. It was also a time of increased tectonic movement as land masses moved and mountains were formed. Towards the end of the era, increased  glacial activity and climate change brought about the collapse of the Carboniferous rain forests. 

The name Carboniferous comes from the Latin ‘carbo’ for coal and ‘fera’ for carrying or bearing. Ie it was the coal bearing era. An era 60 million years in the making, locking away tonnes of carbon dioxide as coal, it is mind blowing to think that at current consumption levels – 7.25 billion tonnes a year – we have just 133 years of coal left. (https://www.worldometers.info/coal/).

Counting on … day 68

18th March 2024

What are the risks of climate change?

Here in the UK the risks include:-

  • Extremes of temperatures. Excess deaths during the heatwave of 2022, exceeded 4500 persons. Deaths due to heat will rise as peak temperatures rise. There is also the risk that the higher temperatures will enable disease-carrying insects to migrate north leading to outbreaks of dengue fever and Zika virus. Cold temperatures also cause deaths many of which could be prevented if homes were better insulated.
  • Flooding. Extreme weather events such as strong winds and storms, together with heavier rainfall (warmer air absorbs more moisture) flooding is an increasing occurrence, damaging homes, infrastructure such  as roads and railways, buildings such as schools and hospitals, etc. Storms and strong winds also damage power cables and cause power outages.
  • Extremes of temperature and flooding adversely affect agricultural output and the increased risk of food shortages. The UK imports about 60% of its food, so our food supplies are also dependent on the impact of climate change on food producing countries in other parts of the world.
  • Rising sea levels due to melting icecaps is already threatening coastal communities as well as increasing the risk of flooding  around and upstream of estuaries.
  • Droughts are an increasing feature of climate change with hotter drier summers. For  a nation that is used to having a constant supply of water for drinking, washing, cleaning cars, filling swimming pool, watering lawns and irrigating agricultural crops, using less water is a challenge.
  • Any disruption of normal life due to heat waves, flooding, storms etc affects business output, disrupts education, delays hospital treatments, interrupts deliveries to supermarkets etc.

These are some of the risks and impacts of the climate crisis that we are experiencing in the UK. In other more vulnerable parts of the world, the impacts are even greater.

For more reading – https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/22/heat-related-deaths-2022-hit-highest-level-record-england?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/dec/11/climate-crisis-could-cause-10000-extra-uk-deaths-a-year-by-2050-says-health-body?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/mar/10/europe-unprepared-for-climate-risks-eea-report?utm_source=cbnewsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=2024-03-15&utm_campaign=DeBriefed+Global+methane+surge+Europe+faces+urgent+climate+risks+Surprising+origin+of+Trump+s+drill+baby+drill+

Counting on … day 67

15th March 2024

The UK government runs a National Adaptation Programme which assesses the risks arising from climate change and how best we can adapt to reduce of cope with these risks – as well as building on any opportunities where we can gain from change. These plans are reviewed and every five years a new National Adaptation Programme is produced. NAP3 covers the period from 2023 to 2028. It includes items such as:

  • “protecting the natural environment
  • supporting business in adapting to climate change
  • adapting infrastructure (for example, our electricity networks and railways)
  • protecting buildings and their surroundings (for example, from hotter temperatures)
  • protecting public health and communities
  • mitigating international impacts on the UK (for example, on food supplies imported from abroad)”

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/third-national-adaptation-programme-nap3/understanding-climate-adaptation-and-the-third-national-adaptation-programme-nap3

But are the plans sufficiently stringent? 

“Julia King, chair of the adaptation subcommittee of the CCC, said: “The evidence of the damage from climate change has never been clearer, but the UK’s current approach to adaptation is not working. The national adaptation plan published last July, known as Nap3, was the third in a series of five-yearly updates in response to an assessment of climate risks, required under the 2008 Climate Change Act, from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.

“But the CCC found that although it was an improvement on previous efforts, the new plan was still inadequate and required improvement before the next scheduled update in 2028.

“King said: “Defra needs to deliver an immediate strengthening of the government’s programme, with an overhaul of its integration with other government priorities such as net zero and nature restoration. We cannot wait another five years for only incremental improvement.”” https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/mar/13/uk-climate-crisis-plans-fall-far-short-of-what-is-required-ccc-says?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

For further reading – https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-66148239

Counting on … day 66

14th March 2024

Advance planning is key in tackling the climate crisis but it also has to be planning that can flex as circumstance change. The Climate Change Committee was preparing the UK’s fifth carbon budget for the period 2028-2032 back in November 2015. It the executive summary the CCC noted that the publishing of the budget was deliberately being timed to come out before COP21 in Paris – the COP where the Paris agreement was drawn up. 

Amongst the various budget proposals – which largely focused on reducing the carbon intensity of energy generation, and of transport – featured things such as hydrogen powered buses no hydrogen for domestic heating. We now know that the science and the markets have gone down the line of electric buses, and that hydrogen has similarly not proved a practicable substitute for domestic heating – rather the trend has, if very slowly, been for heat pumps.

What the writers of the budget could not have predicted was the Covid pandemic which has altered working patterns and changed the pressures on the transport system. Nor could they have anticipated the war in Ukraine and the sharp increase in fuel prices which has served to reduce gas consumption. 

The CCC is now working on the seventh carbon budget (for the period 2038-2042), having issued the sixth budget in 2020 (for the period 2033-2037). The advance notice of that these budgets give on the shape the economy and infrastructure need to take, should help industry with its investment plans but this does rely on the government both sticking to the plans – eg not changing the proposed date for phasing out new petrol engine cars – and facilitating change when unforeseen circumstances arise such as wars and global energy price hikes. 

Counting on … day 65

13th March 2024

To monitor progress – ie whether nations are meeting the targets they set for themselves with their NDCs – there is the work of an independent body, the Climate Action Tracker. 

“The Climate Action Tracker is an independent scientific project that tracks government climate action and measures it against the globally agreed Paris Agreement aim of “holding warming well below 2°C, and pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C.” A collaboration of two organisations, Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, the CAT has been providing this independent analysis to policymakers since 2009.” https://climateactiontracker.org/

In 2022 the UK updated its NDC, as part of the COP26 agreement,  to commit to reducing it economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions by at least 68% by 2030, compared with 1990 levels. (https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-06/UK Nationally Determined Contribution.pdf)

The diagram below shows Climate Action Trackers assessment for the UK as of of September 2023. There clearly room for improvement.

Counting on … day 64

12th March 2024

A Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) is a climate action plan that shows how a nation will cut its emissions and adapt to climate change. (Being nationally determined allows for differentiation between nations according to the current ability to effect change. Wealthier countries should be able to reduce emissions at a faster rate). 

Each Party – ie nation or state – to the Paris Agreement is required to establish an NDC.  Collectively these NDCs should ensure the world’s greenhouse gas emissions peak and then fall, and so address the climate crisis. Each NDC covers a five year period – being submitted to the UNFCC in 2020, 2025, 2030 etc – but is subject to ongoing review by each nation.

Since 2021 the UNFCC has produced a synthesis report that collects, collates and analyses all the NDCs, to determine whether or not nations are on track to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement. The most recent, published in November 2023 in the run up to COP28, found that the  national climate action plans were still insufficient to limit the global temperature rise to just 1.5C. The hope was that this announcement would spur on the parties at COP28 to take radical action to address this shortcoming.

However it did not.

Counting on … day 63

11th March 2024

“The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an intergovernmental body of the United Nations. Its job is to advance scientific knowledge about climate change caused by human activities… It has 195 member states who govern the IPCC. The member states elect a bureau of scientists to serve through an assessment cycle. A cycle is usually six to seven years… The IPCC informs governments about the state of knowledge of climate change. It does this by examining all the relevant scientific literature on the subject. This includes the natural, economic and social impacts and risks… Thousands of scientists and other experts volunteer to review the publications. They compile key findings into “Assessment Reports” for policymakers and the general public; Experts have described this work as the biggest peer review process in the scientific community. The IPCC is an internationally accepted authority on climate change. Leading climate scientists and all member governments endorse its findings.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change

The reports produced by the IPCC have been key in enabling The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This is the structure that enables the UN to negotiate an agreement whereby the nations of the world undertake to address the climate crisis.  Formally it is termed an international treaty among countries to combat “dangerous human interference with the climate system” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Framework_Convention_on_Climate_Change

The most significant UNFCCC treaty was The Paris Agreement which was hammered out at COP21 in 2015 and came into force in 2016. Its aims were to limit the rise in global temperature to less than 2ºC above pre-industrial revolution levels, while aiming to hold it at 1.5ºC. 

Counting on … day 61

7th March 2024

“The International Energy Agency Agency (IEA) is a Paris-based autonomous intergovernmental organisation, established in 1974, that provides policy recommendations, analysis and data on the global energy sector. The 31 member countries and 13[1] association countries of the IEA represent 75% of global energy demand… The core activity of the IEA is providing policy advice to its member states and Associated countries to support their energy security and advance their transition to clean energy.[3] Recently, it has focused in particular on supporting global efforts to accelerate clean energy transition, mitigate climate change, reach net zero emissions, and prevent global temperatures from rising above 1.5 °C.” (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Energy_Agency)

It seems strange that the membership does not include any of the oil states from the Middle East, and very few African nations who surely have an equally vested interest in energy security. 

Back in 2021, the IEA declared that the exploitation and development of new oil and gas fields must stop if the world was to stay within safe limits of global heating and meet the goal of net zero emissions by 2050. It is thus worrying that so many countries and so many companies have since then continued to grant licences and develop new oil and gas fields. The UK’s current government is even proposing to increase the frequency with which it issues new licenses!

This message was reinforce in 2023 when, having noted the strong growth in clean energy provision, the IEA reported that whilst there was no longer a need to maintain current investment levels in fossil fuels, investment in oil and gas was in fact twice what would be necessary to achieve net zero emissions targets. (https://origin.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2023)

On the plus side, the IEA’s report of March this year on clean energy, notes: “The deployment of solar PV, wind power, nuclear power, electric cars, and heat pumps from 2019 to 2023 avoids around 2.2 billion tonnes (Gt) of emissions annually. Without them, the increase in CO2 emissions globally over the same period would have been more than three times larger.” (https://www.iea.org/reports/clean-energy-market-monitor-march-2024

Counting on … day 62

8th March 2024

“Energy Efficiency improves when a given level of service is provided with reduced amounts of energy inputs or services are enhanced for a given amount of energy input.

“Energy Intensity is measured by the quantity of energy required per unit output or activity, so that using less energy to produce a product reduces the intensity.” (https://www.energy.gov/eere/analysis/energy-efficiency-vs-energy-intensity)

Improving energy efficiency has been one way of reducing carbon emissions. At the household level, this has – and is – through improving the insulation of our homes so we need use less energy to keep them warm; through using more energy efficient appliances (++A washing machines for example) and low energy light bulbs. Cars too have become more energy efficient over the decades so that petrol cars can achieve 60mpg in urban conditions whereas in the past those figures would have been in the low tens. However the benefits of improving energy efficiency has often be lost as manufacturers have geared up to make and sell bigger cars, more powerful domestic appliances, or more frequent upgrades encouraging replacement purchases.

Energy efficiency is only of value if it leads to less energy being used and less pollution emitted.