13th October 2026
Backtracking to building resilience, the Guardian had an apt item about ensuring that our homes are secure and ready for the likely wet and windy weather that El Niño will bring this autumn/ winter.
Tag: resilience
Counting on … day 99
6th October 2026
For farmers adaptation may involve building new reservoirs on their land to store more water – this is what they did on the Elveden Estate but despite adding a 500,000 cubic metres reservoir to their exit 700,000 cubic metres storage capacity, they still reached a point if no more water for further irrigation. (1)
To help fill reservoirs, farmers may need new permits to allow them to abstract water from rivers during the wetter winter months – rather than doing so in the hotter dryer summer months. Reservoirs can also host floating solar panels! (2)
Some farmers are experimenting with restoring wetlands -such as water meadows, creating or restoring ponds, and re-wiggling rivers to keep more water on their land when it rains which both helps reduce flooding in the winter and keeping ground water levels higher in the summer.(3)
Another approach is to grow different crops that are more drought resistant, or to use different farming methods such as planting shade crops, sylviculture, smart irrigation techniques etc. Another consideration is to shift growing crops dependent on large amounts of water to a wetter region of the country. (4)
We as consumers can be part of the change: be willing to buy and eat different fruits and vegetables; eating more home grown vegetables (rather than relying on the produce of other drought challenged countries); eating less meat and dairy – both being large consumers of water.
(1) https://www.farmersguide.co.uk/machinery/drainage-irrigation/elveden-reservoir-water-security/
(3) https://www.lancswt.org.uk/blog/what-wetter-farming
Counting on … day 98
5th October 2026
How do we as a society and as individuals adapt to increasing likelihood of more frequent and longer droughts in the years to come? How should the different industries respond? How should the agriculture sector and farmers in particular adapt?
The following observation comes from the railway industry.
“The most important consideration is that we should now distinguish between maintenance and adaptation. Clearing a drain prepares us for the next storm, [but] redesigning or increasing the capacity of that drainage system prepares us for the next 30 years. We need to be doing both.”
Droughts and floods threaten the stability of the ground on which railway lines have been built – both cuttings and embankments. This summer hot dry weather dried the ground underneath the railway lines (particularly those on embankments) with the risk that the ground might move – laterally or vertically and possibly in different directions at the same time – with the risk of disturbing the alignment of the tracks and this the risk of derailment. To reduce the risk, many train has to run more slowly over these sections of tracks, disrupting time tables. Flooding can equally undermine stability as well as blocking the line. Strong winds can lead to more trees falling onto the tracks – or blowing other things such as garden gazebos and trampolines onto the tracks. Winds can destabilise trains, dislodge overhead lines etc. Adverse weather can hinder staff – drivers, train crew, signallers etc – getting to work. And hot weather be debilitating for staff especially those who can’t readily access cool spaces, fresh water and toilets. There is a lot of adaptation that is going to be necessary if the railway industry is to operate effectively in an increasingly extreme climate.
Will we as customers have to be more flexible about how and when we travel? More willing to both accept and factor in, adverse weather conditions?
Counting on … day 96
1st October 2026
Olive oil is listed as the fifth food that will cost more this winter as a result of the extreme climate events and the ongoing conflicts around the world. Whilst olive trees are a native Mediterranean plant that is adapted to the Mediterranean climate, they do need a certain amount of moisture to grow and produce fruit. Recent droughts, excessive heat and a proliferation of pests, has reduced the harvest, whilst in Spain wildfires and earlier in late winter, storms and heavy rain in late winter caused both damage and loss of trees. Reduced harvests like this will lead to increased costs for the consumer.
Of course there are alternative cheaper oils that we can use such as rapeseed oil. The rapeseed harvest has been better than previous years, benefitting from the large amounts of sunshine.
Counting on … day 95
30th September 2026
The Conversation(1) identifies bread as the fourth food item whose cost is rising. “Arable farmers growing field crops such as wheat do not irrigate their crops but rely on the right amount of rain at the right time of year. This year’s long summer drought meant that UK wheat yields have fallen significantly below recent averages. But wheat only makes up about 10% of the overall cost of an average loaf of bread. Increases in pricing are also being driven by energy prices and other overheads passed onto bakeries, which need to power huge mills to produce flour and heat ovens to bake bread. This means a poor harvest is one of many factors likely to inflate the price of bread over the coming months.”
Like potatoes, bread is both a staple in our diets but also one of the foods most frequently thrown away. Again this may reflect its relatively low price (more so in the case of sliced pre-packed bread than premium freshly baked loaves) and a general attitude that it is ‘only’ bread.
Sliced pre-packed is typically full of chemicals that prolongs its life but even so it will go mouldy if not eaten within a certain time frame – yet for small households the economy of buying a large loaf may outweigh the benefits of a smaller loaf.
In countries outside the UK it is more usual to buy fresh bread daily – and thus to patronise a local bakery where fresh bread is produced daily. (But even that is a reality that is in decline perhaps because there are fewer people willing to take on the unsocial hours of a baker, and the unwillingness of people to pay a price that reflect a fair wage for the baker when a cheaper option is abating the supermarket).
All this suggests that we may need to value bread more highly, and appreciate it as a more than a filler but as a tasty nutritious part of our diet.
Here we might want to reflect on the comparisons between the nutritional value of a sliced pre-packed loaf which has been rushed through its production and filled with numerous additives to compensate, and bread that is made by traditional methods using just flour, water, yeast and a little salt. For more information see https://www.bbc.co.uk/future/article/20250704-sourdough-vs-white-sliced-which-breads-should-we-be-eating and through the Real Bread Campaign https://www.sustainweb.org/realbread/ourwork/
At the same time, we may need to ensure we store our bread well – https://www.fob.uk.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/FS18-Keeping-Bread-Fresh-03-18.pdf – who don’t using paper bags or – https://www.highspeedtraining.co.uk/hub/how-to-store-bread/ – who do! I personally store home made bread in cotton bags (washing each before reuse) and freeze bread wrapped in bees wax wrap.
And ensure we make good use of left over or stale bread.
NB in many cases where egg is used there will be a vegan option, eg: https://tinandthyme.uk/2021/04/vegan-savoury-bread-pudding/
We might also want to give due credit to the skills of bakers and millers, and support local independent bakers as part of our community:
“More jobs per loaf
“A small, independent bakery offers meaningful, skilled baking jobs to people from YOUR local community. Very simply put, each time you buy from one, you are helping to support more jobs per loaf.
“Supporting your high street
“As well as supporting meaningful jobs for local people, each time you spend money with locally-owned businesses, far more of that is likely to be reinvested locally. Where would you rather see your money go – supporting your neighbours and keeping your high street alive, or lining the pockets of the shareholders of huge national – or even multinational – corporations?” https://www.sustainweb.org/realbread/supermarkets/
As regards millers, you might want to check any that are local to you – https://www.sourdough.co.uk/british-artisan-flour-mills-by-region/ I buy our flour from Fosters Mill in Cambridgeshire which is wind-powered.
Nevertheless there is still an issue around cost. Good bread should be an affordable food for everyone. Either the cost of making good bread needs to be subsidised or society needs to ensure that everyone has a sufficient biscuits income that makes good bread affordable.
This scheme is one tackling this issue – https://scotlandthebread.org/2021/01/29/solidarity-stories-bread-communities-working-together-for-equal-access-to-good-food/
Maybe this – https://communitychef.org.uk/what-are-bread-clubs/ or this – https://breadtogether.org.uk/
Counting on … day 94
29th September 2026
Leafy greens are the third item listed as a food that will cost more this winter as a result of the extreme climate events and the ongoing conflicts around the world.
Leafy greens need a lot of water – think how much water there is in a lettuce leaf! Many leafy greens are also susceptible to fluctuations in available water: too little water one day cannot be compensated for by extra water the next. Either the plant will die or it may shoot up quickly and go to seed, or its growth will be uneven. Cabbages with thick green leaves cope better than delicate lettuce leaves. Cut-and- come lettuces do better than head forming lettuces. Sprouting broccoli does better than Calabrese, whilst cauliflowers can suffer sunburn!
Again we can’t necessarily rely on importing leafy greens from Europe when our crops run short – although, as reported below, countries like Spain already have in place better infrastructure for efficient irrigation. We may have to adapt to eating a different spectrum of green leafy vegetables. Equally we might look to growing some at home – and even without a garden we can grow herbs, sprouting seeds and mustard and cress.
For some leafy greens, there maybe technological alternatives such as vertical growing – https://canadawater.co.uk/latest/news/harvest-london-at-canada-water/ – or – as demonstrated in Germany, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/sep/11/supermarket-salad-rooftop-garden-berlin?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other – growing salads on top of the supermarket where they are to be sold!
Alternative drought tolerant vegetables – https://www.rhs.org.uk/garden-inspiration/grow-your-own/crops-to-beat-heat-and-drought
Counting on … day 92
25th September 2026
Shortages of cocoa beans invariably leads to higher prices for the beans and that usually means even higher prices increase for chocolate.
Whilst chocolate is made from cocoa beans, other ingredients come too. The cocoa beans themselves, after fermenting and drying, roasting and crushing, are finally ground to separate the oily part of the bean from the mass. The former is the coco butter and the later the cocoa solid or powder. These two are then recombined along with sugar, sometimes milk and various flavourings.
One way in which manufacturers can reduce costs is by replacing some of the cocoa butter with palm oil. Palm oil is cheap to buy (although its cost in terms of damage to the environment is high) and it easily replicates the melt-in-the-mouth texture of cocoa butter. It is also a more tolerant ingredient and makes the ‘tempering’ of the chocolate easier.
However using palm oil rather than cocoa butter doesn’t reward the cocoa farmer.
For those of us who can afford to do so, we can be selective in choosing which chocolate we eat. Ethical Consumer regularly updates its rating of different chocolate manufacturers.
Cocoa and chocolate terms defined – https://www.global-organics.com/2019/11/22/chocolate-and-cocoa-terms-defined/
Counting on … day 91
24th September 2026
Cocoa plants are particularly susceptible to unseasonable weather, especially intensive rainfall and drought. This has already impacted this year’s production and will continue to be an issue with the ongoing impact of El Niño. Most cocoa production comes from small farms, and at that scale the impact of a poor harvest can be difficult to cope with. Poor harvests impact both producers and consumers. Cocoa farmers have long suffered from low prices for their crops. To some extent this can be alleviated through Fair Trade certification whereby the farmers receive a guaranteed premium price.
However there are various other projects that seek to improve the profitability of small scale cocoa farms. These, for example, may include growing additional compatible crops such as yams, cassava, rice and poultry. Silviculture where taller growing trees provide shade and an additional crop, are a good solution. The RSPB sells chocolate made from cocoa grown in this way where a particular benefit is in providing restored forest habitats for native birds.
Shade grown cocoa farming is to be encouraged as a better option for soil health, climate and biodiversity, than the sadly frequent practice of deforestation where natural tropical forests are cleared to make space for cocoa plants.
Another approach is to manufacture the chocolate in the country of origin. This way a greater proportion of the money earned stays with the local communities.
Another potential source of income for the farmer is to recycle the cocoa pulp that surrounds the coco bean and which conventionally is discarded.
Further reading
Fairtrade chocolate – https://www.fairtrade.net/uk-en/products-and-producers/fairtrade-products/chocolate.html
RSPB chocolate – https://www.rspb.org.uk/whats-happening/news/the-power-of-forest-friendly-chocolate
Cocoa and deforestation – https://globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/forests/chocolate-giants-fuel-deforestation-in-west-africas-last-rainforest/
Chocolate manufactured in Africa – https://www.tasteatlas.com/best-rated-chocolates-in-africa
Reusing cocoa pulp – https://www.wri.org/insights/hidden-benefits-cacao-waste
From bean to bar: how chocolate is produced – https://worldcocoafoundation.org/from-bean-to-bar
Trees of Life
19th September 2026
The fruit of the righteous is a tree of life. Proverbs 11:30a
Sovereign God, you are the source of all good things:
We praise you.
You call us to tend and care for your creation:
May we strive to do your will.
You have made us as brothers and sisters with all that lives:
May we live together in peace
A reading: As long as the earth endures, seedtime and harvest, cold and heat, summer and winter, day and night, shall not cease. Genesis 8:22
An acorn is a comical thing
with a little hat that could be a cup.
Its pointed tip – that could be its bottom –
is not going to drill its way into the earth.
It waits for the rook or the squirrel
to snaffle it and bury it deep in the soil,
where after hours of dark contemplation
it will emerge as a slip of a thing,
with rusty red leaves that unfold into green.
An oak’s life starts in a very small way.
Lord God, in small and even comical ways,
let our faith grow.
From small beginnings help us sow
seeds that will transform your world.
A reading: I will put in the wilderness the cedar, the acacia, the myrtle, and the olive; I will set in the desert the cypress, the plane and the pine together, so that all may see and know, all may consider and understand, that the hand of the Lord has done this, the Holy One of Israel has created it. Isaiah 41:19-20
Rooted together in community,
colonising land that might otherwise be void,
trees are not loners.
Companions, they support each other,
as neighbours they support others,
forming delicate ecosystems
where life is in the balance.
Lord God, let our faith
create neighbours and communities.
Rooted in togetherness,
may your kingdom come.
A Reading: He said, “Out of the eater came something to eat; Out of the strong came something sweet.” Three days later they had still not figured out what the riddle meant. Judges 14:14
Ancient oak,
wrinkled and gnarled,
gnawed at by time,
even in death you provide safe lodging
and sustenance for others.
With grace you return to the earth
the nourishment you harvested:
a life time of receiving and giving.
Lord God, let our faith
nourish generations to come
just as we gain from those who have gone before.
May the power of the resurrection
sustain us with eternal life.
Amen.
The Grace
Counting on … 86
7th September
A different aspect of resilience is maintaining good mental health.
I know I can get over stressed by worrying about the various existential crises that we face – climate change, biodiversity loss, poverty, injustice etc – and I can get into a frame of mind that says that anything I do will not be enough, that anything I do will not make a difference, and I can’t work out what to do. It becomes overwhelming and I can’t escape.
But what do I know is that there are some things that I can do that will unwind the anxiety. One is exercise and I do this regularly with a set pattern such that on Tuesdays for example, I will book a swim for 7.30am, then use the gym and then have breakfast in the cafe. The other is to simply go out and pay attention to the natural world – often this is sitting by the Thames, watching the river, the wildlife, the changing tides and seasons, and even just watching the people who are also enjoying the river.
You could say that I count on nature to keep me sane!
